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Structural breaks and monetary dynamics: A time series analysis

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  • El-Shazly, Alaa

Abstract

This article investigates the stability of money demand and implications for the conduct of monetary policy in Egypt. The econometric procedures include testing for structural breaks at unknown dates and conditioning on the most recent break for estimation and forecasting. Test results provide evidence for regime shifts and lend support to the use of short-term interest rate as the main policy instrument. Sources of structural change are detected by a state-space model. Also, using a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model for short-run dynamics, it is found that narrow money is a more appropriate monetary aggregate for policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • El-Shazly, Alaa, 2016. "Structural breaks and monetary dynamics: A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 133-143.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:53:y:2016:i:c:p:133-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.11.019
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    Keywords

    Money demand; Structural breaks; State-space model; Structural VAR analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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