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An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan


    (Deakin University)

  • Seema Narayan



  • Susan S Sharma


    (Deakin University)

In this paper we study whether the commodity futures market predicts the commodity spot market. Using historical daily data on four commodities—oil, gold, platinum, and silver—we find that they do. We then show how investors can use this information on the futures market to devise trading strategies and make profits. In particular, dynamic trading strategies based on a mean-variance investor framework produce somewhat different results compared with those based on technical trading rules. Dynamic trading strategies suggest that all commodities are profitable and profits are dependent on structural breaks. The most recent global financial crisis marked a period in which commodity profits were the weakest.

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Paper provided by Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance in its series Financial Econometics Series with number 2013_02.

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Length: 46
Date of creation:
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Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2013_02
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  12. Marquering, Wessel & Verbeek, Marno, 2004. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 407-429, June.
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