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Designing an early warning system for currency crises: an empirical treatment

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  • Alaa El-Shazly

Abstract

This article investigates the predictive power of qualitative response models that can serve as the basis for an early warning system for currency crises. It employs a signals framework that monitors the behaviour of key economic variables and issues a warning when their values exceed certain critical levels. The analysis is carried out for a parsimonious specification with high-frequency data. Taking Egypt as a case study, it is shown that this class of probability models captures to a good extent the turbulence in the foreign exchange market and the onset of crises.

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  • Alaa El-Shazly, 2011. "Designing an early warning system for currency crises: an empirical treatment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(14), pages 1817-1828.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:14:p:1817-1828
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840802600657
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
    4. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 1999/178, International Monetary Fund.
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    1. Medina Moral, Eva & Salvador Perucha, David, 2018. "Medición de la vulnerabilidad monetaria en el área latinoamericana bajo un enfoque de señales ?móviles?/Measurement of Monetary Vulnerability in the Latin American Area using a," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 603-634, Mayo.
    2. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2016. "Structural breaks and monetary dynamics: A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 133-143.

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