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Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda

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  • Heun, Michael
  • Schlink, Torsten

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to implement a prototype of a currency crisis model as part of an early warning system framework for Uganda. The financial systems of developing countries like Uganda are especially vulnerable and therefore robust instruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is based on the signals approach developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). The basic idea of the signals approach is to monitor several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator crosses a threshold, then it is said to issue a signal that a currency crisis may occur within a given period. We implemented this signals approach for Uganda. One of the main challenges in this connection is that Uganda during the analyzed periods had no currency crisis. Therefore, we modified the model in a way that it estimates some of the performance measures based on empirical studies to obtain usable results. The outcomes of our calculations performed well and were economically validated.

Suggested Citation

  • Heun, Michael & Schlink, Torsten, 2004. "Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 59, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:59
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 473-500.
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    6. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-363, July.
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    10. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crises; Uganda; early warning systems; balance of payment crises; crisis prediction; vulnerability indicators; signals approach;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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