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Modelling and forecasting money demand: divide and conquer

Listed author(s):
  • César Carrera

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Jairo Flores

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

The literature on money demand suggests several specification forms of empirical functions that better describe observed data on money in circulation. In a first stage, we select the best long-run model specification for a money demand function at the aggregate level based on forecast performance. On a second stage we divide the money in circulation by denomination and argue that determinants of a low-level denomination is different than those of a high-level. We then estimate the best model specification for each denomination and aggregate each forecast in order to have an aggregate proyection. We finally compare forecasts between these strategies. Our results indicate that the bottom-up approach has a better performance than the traditional view of directly forecasting the aggregate.

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Paper provided by Peruvian Economic Association in its series Working Papers with number 2017-91.

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Date of creation: Apr 2017
Handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:2017-091
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://perueconomics.org/

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  1. Carrera Cesar, 2012. "Estimating Information Rigidity Using Firms' Survey Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, June.
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  7. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
  8. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
  9. Carrera, Cesar, 2012. "Long-Run Money Demand in Latin-American countries: A Nonestationary Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2012-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  10. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
  11. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, December.
  12. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Is euro area money demand for M3 still stable?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-39.
  13. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
  14. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 2015-50, Peruvian Economic Association.
  15. Darrat, Ali F. & Al-Sowaidi, Saif S., 2009. "Financial progress and the stability of long-run money demand: Implications for the conduct of monetary policy in emerging economies," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 124-131, August.
  16. Kumar, Saten & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2012. "Error-correction based panel estimates of the demand for money of selected Asian countries with the extreme bounds analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1181-1188.
  17. Palley, Thomas I., 1995. "The demand for money and non-GDP transactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 145-154, May.
  18. Howells, Peter & Hussein, Khaled, 1997. "The demand for money: Total transactions as the scale variable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 371-377, September.
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