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How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan

Author

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  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Tomoyoshi Yabu

    (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University)

Abstract

This paper estimates a money demand function using Japanese data from 1985 to 2017, which includes the period of near-zero interest rates over the last two decades. We compare a log-log specification and a semi-log specification by employing the methodology proposed by Kejriwal and Perron (2010) on cointegrating relationships with structural breaks. Our main finding is that there exists a cointegrating relationship with a single break between the money-income ratio and the interest rate in the case of the log-log form but not in the case of the semi-log form. More specifically, we show that the substantial increase in the money-income ratio during the period of near-zero interest rates is well captured by the log-log form but not by the semi-log form. We also show that the demand for money did not decline in 2006 when the Bank of Japan terminated quantitative easing and started to raise the policy rate, suggesting that there was an upward shift in the money demand schedule. Finally, we find that the welfare gain from moving from 2 percent in ation to price stability is 0.10 percent of nominal GDP, which is more than six times as large as the corresponding estimate for the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-465, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," CARF F-Series CARF-F-493, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    3. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 028, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2021. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 224-242, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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