IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfi/fseres/cf465.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Tomoyoshi Yabu

    (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University)

Abstract

This paper estimates a money demand function using Japanese data from 1985 to 2017, which includes the period of near-zero interest rates over the last two decades. We compare a log-log specification and a semi-log specification by employing the methodology proposed by Kejriwal and Perron (2010) on cointegrating relationships with structural breaks. Our main finding is that there exists a cointegrating relationship with a single break between the money-income ratio and the interest rate in the case of the log-log form but not in the case of the semi-log form. More specifically, we show that the substantial increase in the money-income ratio during the period of near-zero interest rates is well captured by the log-log form but not by the semi-log form. We also show that the demand for money did not decline in 2006 when the Bank of Japan terminated quantitative easing and started to raise the policy rate, suggesting that there was an upward shift in the money demand schedule. Finally, we find that the welfare gain from moving from 2 percent in ation to price stability is 0.10 percent of nominal GDP, which is more than six times as large as the corresponding estimate for the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-465, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf465
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/admin/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/F465.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rubens Penha Cysne, 2009. "Bailey's Measure of the Welfare Costs of Inflation as a General-Equilibrium Measure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 451-459, March.
    2. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    3. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    4. Columba, Francesco, 2009. "Narrow money and transaction technology: New disaggregated evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 312-325, July.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Lawrence H. Summers & Ella Getz Wold, 2019. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel," NBER Working Papers 25416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Allan H. Meltzer, 1963. "The Demand for Money: The Evidence from the Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 219-219.
    8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    9. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    10. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2002. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 317-351, April.
    11. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 185-202, September.
    12. Inagaki, Kazuyuki, 2009. "Estimating the interest rate semi-elasticity of the demand for money in low interest rate environments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 147-154, January.
    13. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    14. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
    15. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1991. "Long-Run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 665-674, November.
    16. Paroush, Jacob & Ruthenberg, David, 1986. "Automated teller machines and the share of demand deposits in the money supply: The Israeli Experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1207-1215, December.
    17. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    18. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2018. "The Demand for Money at the Zero Interest Rate Bound," CARF F-Series CARF-F-444, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    19. Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2015. "On the stability of money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 48-65.
    20. Ball, Laurence, 2001. "Another look at long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 31-44, February.
    21. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    22. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Is There a Desirable Rate of Inflation? A Theoretical and Empirical Survey," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 49-83, May.
    23. Melnick, Rafi, 1990. "The Demand for Money in Argentina 1978-1987: Before and after the Austral Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(4), pages 427-434, October.
    24. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Adoption of financial technologies: Implications for money demand and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 134, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    25. Alexander L. Wolman, 1997. "Zero inflation and the Friedman rule: a welfare comparison," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
    26. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
    27. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
    28. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005. "A General-Equilibrium Closed-Form Solution to the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 59(2), April.
    29. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Extensive Margins and the Demand for Money at Low Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 961-991, October.
    30. Ryuzo Miyao, 2002. "Liquidity Trap and the Stability of Money Demand: Is Japan Really Trapped at the Zero Bound?," Discussion Paper Series 127, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/catokjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.