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Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel

Author

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  • Gauti B. Eggertsson
  • Ragnar E. Juelsrud
  • Lawrence H. Summers
  • Ella Getz Wold

Abstract

Following the crisis of 2008, several central banks engaged in a new experiment by setting negative policy rates. Using aggregate and bank level data, we document that deposit rates stopped responding to policy rates once they went negative and that bank lending rates in some cases increased rather than decreased in response to policy rate cuts. Based on the empirical evidence, we construct a macro-model with a banking sector that links together policy rates, deposit rates and lending rates. Once the policy rate turns negative, the usual transmission mechanism of monetary policy through the bank sector breaks down. Moreover, because a negative policy rate reduces bank profits, the total effect on aggregate output can be contractionary. A calibration which matches Swedish bank level data suggests that a policy rate of -0.50 percent increases borrowing rates by 15 basis points and reduces output by 7 basis points.

Suggested Citation

  • Gauti B. Eggertsson & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Lawrence H. Summers & Ella Getz Wold, 2019. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel," NBER Working Papers 25416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25416
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willem H. Buiter & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2003. "Overcoming the zero bound on nominal interest rates with negative interest on currency: gesell's solution," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 723-746, October.
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    3. Christoph Basten & Mike Mariathasan, 2018. "How Banks Respond to Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from the Swiss Exemption Threshold," CESifo Working Paper Series 6901, CESifo.
    4. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    5. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball, 2015. "Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Working Papers 15/224, International Monetary Fund.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-12-02 13:10:33

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 013, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Johannes Bubeck & Angela Maddaloni & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks’ Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," Working Papers 1128, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    3. Carlo Altavilla & Miguel Boucinha & Lorenzo Burlon, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of Negative Interest Rates," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 13-17, April.
    4. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 26002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christian Pfister & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policies: A stock-taking exercise," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 137-169.
    6. Robert L. Czudaj, 2019. "Is the negative interest rate policy effective?," Chemnitz Economic Papers 034, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised Dec 2019.
    7. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydro, Jose-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea & Sette, Enrico, 2019. "Expansionary Yet Different: Credit Supply and Real Effects of Negative Interest Rate Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14233, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Oliver de Groot & Alexander Haas, 2020. "The Negative Interest Rate Policy Experiment," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 7-12, April.
    10. Julius Probst, 2019. "Lawrence Summers Deserves a Nobel Prize for Reviving the Theory of Secular Stagnation," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 16(2), pages 342–373-3, September.
    11. Alessandro Secchi, 2019. "A two-tier system for remunerating banks’ excess liquidity in the euro area: aims and possible side effects," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 534, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Grégory LEVIEUGE & Jean-Guillaume SAHUC, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission with downward interest rate rigidity," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2744, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    13. Nicolas Reigl & Karsten Staehr, 2020. "Negative Interest Rates in the Five Eurozone Countries from Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 24-30, April.
    14. Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Is the negative interest rate policy effective?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 75-86.
    15. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2019. "Is There a Zero Lower Bound? The Effects of Negative Policy Rates on Banks and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 14050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Saki Bigio & Yuliy Sannikov, 2019. "A Model of Intermediation, Money, Interest, and Prices," Working Papers 150, Peruvian Economic Association.
    17. Boungou, Whelsy, 2020. "Negative interest rates policy and banks’ risk-taking: Empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    18. Martin Brown, 2020. "Negative Interest Rates and Bank Lending," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 18-23, April.
    19. Ankargren, Sebastian & Shahnazarian, Hovick, 2019. "The Interaction Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 365, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Apr 2019.
    20. Murota, Ryu-ichiro, 2019. "Negative interest rate policy in a permanent liquidity trap," MPRA Paper 93498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Garyn Tan, 2019. "Beyond the zero lower bound: negative policy rates and bank lending," DNB Working Papers 649, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    22. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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