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China’s slowdown and global financial market volatility: is world growth losing out?

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  • Cashin, Paul

    () (International Monetary Fund)

  • Mohaddes, Kamiar

    () (University of Cambridge)

  • Raissi, Mehdi

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

China’s GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0:23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0:29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2016. "China’s slowdown and global financial market volatility: is world growth losing out?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 270, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:270
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 15/259, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2017. "Oil prices and the global economy: Is it different this time around?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 315-325.
    3. Allan Dizioli & Benjamin L Hunt & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2016. "Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy," IMF Working Papers 16/212, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2019. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 122-142, January.
    5. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:01:n:s1793993317500016 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:asieco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:36-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:streco:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:88-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:inecon:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:37-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andritzky, Jochen & Kassner, Bernhard & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2016. "Propagation of changes in demand through international trade: Case study China," Working Papers 10/2016, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    10. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    11. Allan Dizioli & Jaime Guajardo & Vladimir Klyuev & Rui Mano & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies," IMF Working Papers 16/170, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    13. Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2017. "China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 413-429, July.
    14. repec:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:78-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Serkan Arslanalp & Wei Liao & Shi Piao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2016. "China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 16/173, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Gee Hee Hong & Jaewoo Lee & Wei Liao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2016. "China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown," IMF Working Papers 16/105, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2016. "Zeit für Reformen. Jahresgutachten 2016/17," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201617.
    18. Anna Sznajderska, 2017. "The role of China in the world economy: evidence from global VAR model," NBP Working Papers 270, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    19. repec:wbk:wbpubs:28422 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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