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A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model

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  • Alexander Chudik
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Mehdi Raissi
  • Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TG-VAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common global factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth projection revisions of the IMF in 2020Q1. We account for sample uncertainty by bootstrapping the multi-country model estimated over four decades of quarterly observations. Our results show that, without policy support, the Covid-19 pandemic would cause a significant and long-lasting fall in world output, with outcomes that are quite heterogenous across countries and regions. While the impact on China and other emerging Asian economies are estimated to be less severe, the United King-dom, and several other advanced economies may experience deeper and longer-lasting effects. Non-Asian emerging markets stand out for their vulnerability. We show that no country is immune to the economic fallout of the pandemic because of global inter-connections as evidenced by the case of Sweden. We also find that long-term interest rates could temporarily fall below their pre-Covid-19 lows in core advanced economies, but this does not seem to be the case in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi & Alessandro Rebucci, 2020. "A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 8588, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8588
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Baccini & Abel Brodeur & Stephen Weymouth, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 739-767, April.
    2. Chudik, Alexander & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2021. "Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Brzezinski, Michal, 2021. "The impact of past pandemics on economic and gender inequalities," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    4. Serena Ng, 2021. "Modeling Macroeconomic Variations after Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 29060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pablo Garcia & Pascal Jacquinot & Crt Lenarcic & Matija Lozej & Kostas Mavromatis, 2021. "Global models for a global pandemic: the impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies," BCL working papers 156, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Dario Laudati & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "Identifying the Effects of Sanctions on the Iranian Economy Using Newspaper Coverage," CESifo Working Paper Series 9217, CESifo.
    7. Glocker, Christian & Piribauer, Philipp, 2021. "The determinants of output losses during the Covid-19 pandemic," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    threshold-augmented global VAR (TGVAR); international business cycle; Covid-19; global volatility; threshold effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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