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Climate shocks, economic activity and cross-country spillovers: Evidence from a new global model

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmadi, Maryam
  • Casoli, Chiara
  • Manera, Matteo
  • Valenti, Daniele

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate shocks on economic activity, addressing the gap in the literature of climate change economics. Using data covering a time span of 59 years, from 1960 to 2019, we employ a new global model to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation shocks on real output across 33 countries, accounting for more than 90% of the world’s gross domestic product. Our analysis reveals that hotter and less-developed countries are more exposed to temperature shocks. Moreover, only some colder and more developed countries show a contraction of output in the medium-long run. Our results highlight trade interconnections as the main channel of propagation of climate shocks into the economic system. This study offers new insights into the transmission mechanism of climate shocks and suggests the adoption of climate policies at both global and local levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmadi, Maryam & Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2025. "Climate shocks, economic activity and cross-country spillovers: Evidence from a new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:148:y:2025:i:c:s026499932500077x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107082
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian structural VARs; Identification; Global VARs; Climate shocks; Economic spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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