IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2505.17946.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data

Author

Listed:
  • Jinchi Dong
  • Richard S. J. Tol
  • Jinnan Wang

Abstract

Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from nearly all countries, we find robust evidence that weather shocks have a transient effect on output. The impact on economic growth is large and significant in the short-run but statistically insignificant in the long-run, except in the coldest and hottest places.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinchi Dong & Richard S. J. Tol & Jinnan Wang, 2025. "The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data," Papers 2505.17946, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.17946
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.17946
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, 2025. "Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability," Nature, Nature, vol. 640(8060), pages 893-901, April.
    2. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Maximilian Kotz & Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz, 2024. "The economic commitment of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 628(8008), pages 551-557, April.
    4. Marshall Burke & Mustafa Zahid & Noah Diffenbaugh & Solomon M. Hsiang, 2023. "Quantifying Climate Change Loss and Damage Consistent with a Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases," NBER Working Papers 31658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pierre Mérel & Matthew Gammans, 2021. "Climate Econometrics: Can the Panel Approach Account for Long‐Run Adaptation?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1207-1238, August.
    6. Damania, R. & Desbureaux, S. & Zaveri, E., 2020. "Does rainfall matter for economic growth? Evidence from global sub-national data (1990–2014)," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Lucas Chancel & Cornelia Mohren & Philipp Bothe & Gregor Semieniuk, 2025. "Climate change and the global distribution of wealth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(4), pages 364-374, April.
    8. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    9. Maximilian Kotz & Leonie Wenz & Annika Stechemesser & Matthias Kalkuhl & Anders Levermann, 2021. "Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 319-325, April.
    10. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    11. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    12. Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "The Social Cost of Carbon," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 419-443, October.
    13. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 198-204, May.
    14. Charles D. Kolstad & Frances C. Moore, 2020. "Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24.
    15. Tol, Richard S. J. & Verheyen, Roda, 2004. "State responsibility and compensation for climate change damages--a legal and economic assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1109-1130, June.
    16. Maximilian Kotz & Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz, 2022. "The effect of rainfall changes on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7892), pages 223-227, January.
    17. Adrien Bilal & Diego R. Känzig, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature," NBER Working Papers 32450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Marshall Burke & W. Matthew Alampay Davis & Noah S. Diffenbaugh, 2018. "Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7706), pages 549-553, May.
    19. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    20. David Anthoff & Johannes Emmerling, 2019. "Inequality and the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 243-273.
    21. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    22. Malpede, Maurizio & Percoco, Marco, 2024. "The long-term economic effects of aridification," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    23. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    24. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C. & Sexton, Steven E., 2021. "The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    25. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    26. Nicholas Apergis & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2025. "The asymmetric role of temperature deviations in economic growth: Fresh evidence from global countries and panel quantile estimates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 893-903, January.
    27. Ahmadi, Maryam & Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2025. "Climate shocks, economic activity and cross-country spillovers: Evidence from a new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    28. Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2022. "Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short and long run impacts of climate change on residential electricity and natural gas consumption," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    29. Pascal Polonik & Katharine Ricke & Jennifer Burney, 2025. "Estimating the impacts of climate change: reconciling disconnects between physical climate and statistical models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-23, February.
    30. Maximilian Kotz & Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz, 2024. "Author Correction: The economic commitment of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 631(8020), pages 9-9, July.
    31. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 33-52, Fall.
    32. Brenden Jongman & Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler & Luc Feyen & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Reinhard Mechler & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Laurens M. Bouwer & Georg Pflug & Rodrigo Rojas & Philip J. Ward, 2014. "Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 264-268, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    2. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    3. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Climate change and economic prosperity: Evidence from a flexible damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 136, pages 1-18.
    5. Kodzovi Senu Abalo & Boehlert,Brent & Bui,Thanh & Andrew Burns & Castillo,Diego & Unnada Chewpreecha & Alexander Haider & Stephane Hallegatte & Charl Jooste & Florent McIsaac & Heather Jane Ruberl & S, 2025. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options : A Modeling Approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11133, The World Bank.
    6. Tarsia, Romano, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of weather shocks on firm economic performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124251, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Olper, Alessandro & Maugeri, Maurizio & Manara, Veronica & Raimondi, Valentina, 2021. "Weather, climate and economic outcomes: Evidence from Italy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Mérel, Pierre & Paroissien, Emmanuel & Gammans, Matthew, 2024. "Sufficient statistics for climate change counterfactuals," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    10. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Adrien Bilal & James H. Stock, 2025. "A Guide to Macroeconomics and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 33567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. Bento, Antonio M. & Miller, Noah & Mookerjee, Mehreen & Severnini, Edson, 2023. "A unifying approach to measuring climate change impacts and adaptation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Schultes, Anselm & Piontek, Franziska & Soergel, Bjoern & Rogelj, Joeri & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Luderer, Gunnar, 2020. "Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts," MPRA Paper 103655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zheng, Shuang & Liu, Xiaohui & Gu, Yue, 2024. "Climate policy and China's external balances," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Hu, Yiming & Liao, Hua, 2025. "High temperatures and national saving: Experience in the latest six decades," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    18. Ahmadi, Maryam & Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2025. "Climate shocks, economic activity and cross-country spillovers: Evidence from a new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Nikhil Kaushik & Ashish Sharma & Poornima Mishra & Sunil Kumar, 2024. "Temperature Rising, Growth Descending: Climate Change Impacts on Asian Economies," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 16(3), pages 295-320, September.
    20. Tony Harding & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Quaas & Wilfried Rickels & Sjak Smulders, 2023. "Climate Damages in Convergence-Consistent Growth Projections," CESifo Working Paper Series 10490, CESifo.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.17946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.