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The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data

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  • Jinchi Dong
  • Richard S. J. Tol
  • Jinnan Wang

Abstract

Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from nearly all countries, we find robust evidence that weather shocks have a transient effect on output. The impact on economic growth is large and significant in the short-run but statistically insignificant in the long-run, except in the coldest and hottest places.

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  • Jinchi Dong & Richard S. J. Tol & Jinnan Wang, 2025. "The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data," Papers 2505.17946, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.17946
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