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Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis

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  • Matthew E. Kahn
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Ryan N. C. Ng
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Mehdi Raissi
  • Jui-Chung Yang

Abstract

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labour productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables - defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04oC per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01oC per annum, reduces the loss substantially to 1.07 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labour productivity and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew E. Kahn & Kamiar Mohaddes & Ryan N. C. Ng & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi & Jui-Chung Yang, 2019. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2019-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-49
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    Cited by:

    1. Rigas, Nikos & Kounetas, Konstantinos, 2021. "The Role of temperature, Precipitation and CO2 emissions on Countries’ Economic Growth and Productivity," MPRA Paper 104727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. Cécile Couharde & Olivier Damette & Rémi Generoso & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2019. "The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter," CAMA Working Papers 2019-82, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Kling, Gerhard & Volz, Ulrich & Murinde, Victor & Ayas, Sibel, 2021. "The impact of climate vulnerability on firms’ cost of capital and access to finance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Enrica De Cian & Malcolm Mistry & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2020. "The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach," Papers 2012.14693, arXiv.org.
    6. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds," IMF Working Papers 2020/079, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Williams, Rhys J., 2020. "The adaptive investment effect: Evidence from Chinese provinces," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Damania, R. & Desbureaux, S. & Zaveri, E., 2020. "Does rainfall matter for economic growth? Evidence from global sub-national data (1990–2014)," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Esra KADANALI & Omer YALCINKAYA, 2020. "Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: Evidence from 20 Biggest Economies of the World," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 93-118, September.
    10. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2020. "Feeling the Heat: Climate Risks and the Cost of Sovereign Borrowing," ADBI Working Papers 1160, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Cevik, Serhan & Ghazanchyan, Manuk, 2020. "Perfect Storm: Climate Change and Tourism," MPRA Paper 104190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Schultes, Anselm & Piontek, Franziska & Soergel, Bjoern & Rogelj, Joeri & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Luderer, Gunnar, 2020. "Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts," MPRA Paper 103655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Laurent JODOIN, 2020. "Nordhaus on philosophy in climate change economics," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 81-90, November.
    14. Becken, Susanne & Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2020. "Are the current expectations for growing air travel demand realistic?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Atolia, Manoj & Loungani, Prakash & Marquis, Milton & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2020. "Rethinking development policy: What remains of structural transformation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    16. Holtermann, Linus & Rische, Marie-Christin, 2020. "The Subnational Effect of Temperature on Economic Production: A Disaggregated Analysis in European Regions," MPRA Paper 104606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Channing Arndt & Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Working Paper WP2004 Climate change and its implications for central banks in emerging and developing economies," Working Papers 10001, South African Reserve Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; economic growth; adaptation; counterfactual analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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