IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20220056.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (University of Sussex)

Abstract

Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the estimates is much wider. (3) Elicitation methods are most pessimistic, econometric studies most optimistic. Two previous results remain: (4) The uncertainty about the impact is skewed towards negative surprises. (5) Poorer countries are much more vulnerable than richer ones. A meta-analysis of the impact of weather shocks reveals that studies, which relate economic growth to temperature levels, cannot agree on the sign of the impact whereas studies, which make economic growth a function of temperature change do agree on the sign but differ an order of magnitude in effect size. The former studies posit that climate change has a permanent effect on economic growth, the latter that the effect is transient. The impact on economic growth implied by studies of the impact of climate change is close to the growth impact estimated as a function of weather shocks. The social cost of carbon shows a similar pattern to the total impact estimates, but with more emphasis on the impacts of moderate warming in the near and medium term. Keywords: climate change; weather shocks; economic growth; social cost of carbon

Suggested Citation

  • Richard S.J. Tol, 2022. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-056/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220056
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/22056.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Sterner & U. Martin Persson, 2008. "An Even Sterner Review: Introducing Relative Prices into the Discounting Debate," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 61-76, Winter.
    2. José-Luis Cruz & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2021. "The Economic Geography of Global Warming," NBER Working Papers 28466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    4. Sahil Gandhi & Matthew E. Kahn & Rajat Kochhar & Somik Lall & Vaidehi Tandel, 2022. "Adapting to Flood Risk: Evidence from a Panel of Global Cities," NBER Working Papers 30137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Acevedo, Sebastian & Mrkaic, Mico & Novta, Natalija & Pugacheva, Evgenia & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2018. "Energy and Climate," Working Paper Series 1618, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Hope, Chris W., 2011. "The social cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 model," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 532-536, June.
    2. Joxe Mari Barrutiabengoa & Julián Cubero & Rafael Doménech & Javier Andrés, 2023. "Global | Bienestar y Coste Social del Carbono [Global | Social Welfare and the Social Cost of Carbon]," Working Papers 23/04, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol & Changjing Ji, 2023. "Endogenous preference for non-market goods in carbon abatement decision," Papers 2312.11010, arXiv.org.
    4. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Baumol's Climate Disease," Papers 2312.00160, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    3. Michele Cascarano & Filippo Natoli & Andrea Petrella, 2023. "Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1418, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Marcos Sanso-Navarro & Guillermo Peña, 2023. "Long-run effects of floods at municipality level in Spain," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 29, Stata Users Group.
    7. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Valeria Costantini & Anil Markandya & Elena Paglialunga & Giorgia Sforna, 2018. "Impact and distribution of climatic damages: a methodological proposal with a dynamic CGE model applied to global climate negotiations," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(3), pages 809-843, December.
    9. Cevik Serhan & Ghazanchyan Manuk, 2021. "Perfect Storm: Climate Change and Tourism," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 47-61, June.
    10. Joseph E. Aldy & Alan J. Krupnick & Richard G. Newell & Ian W. H. Parry & William A. Pizer, 2010. "Designing Climate Mitigation Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 903-934, December.
    11. Serhan Cevik & Fedor Miryugin, 2023. "Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 29-59, March.
    12. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    13. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds," Working Papers REM 2020/0132, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2022. "An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 89-108, February.
    15. Cevik, Serhan & Jalles, João Tovar, 2023. "For whom the bell tolls: Climate change and income inequality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    16. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    17. Serhan Cevik, João Tovar Jalles, 2023. "Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth," Working Papers REM 2023/0276, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. R. Warren & C. Hope & D. E. H. J. Gernaat & D. P. Vuuren & K. Jenkins, 2021. "Global and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-15, October.
    19. Richard S.J. Tol, 2016. "Dangerous Interference With The Climate System: An Economic Assessment," Working Paper Series 10016, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    20. Murat Doğanlar & Faruk Mike & Oktay Kızılkaya, 2022. "The impact of climate change on aggregate output in middle‐ and high‐income countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 72-86, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; weather shocks; economic growth; social cost of carbon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220056. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.