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Estimation of climate change damage functions for 140 regions in the GTAP9 database

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  • Roson,Roberto
  • Sartori,Martina

Abstract

Climate change damage (or, more correctly, impact) functions relate variations in temperature (or other climate variables) to economic impacts in various dimensions, and are at the basis of quantitative modeling exercises for the assessment of climate change policies. This document provides a summary of results from a series of meta-analyses aimed at estimating parameters for six specific damage functions, referring to: sea level rise, agricultural productivity, heat effects on labor productivity, human health, tourism flows, and households'energy demand. All parameters of the damage functions are estimated for each of the 140 countries and regions in the Global Trade Analysis Project 9 data set. To illustrate the salient characteristics of the estimates, the change in real gross domestic product is approximated for the different effects, in all regions, corresponding to an increase in average temperature of +3°C. After considering the overall impact, the paper highlights which factor is the most significant one in each country, and elaborates on the distributional consequences of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Roson,Roberto & Sartori,Martina, 2016. "Estimation of climate change damage functions for 140 regions in the GTAP9 database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7728, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7728
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Lucas Bretschger & Aimilia Pattakou, 2019. "As Bad as it Gets: How Climate Damage Functions Affect Growth and the Social Cost of Carbon," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 5-26, January.
    4. Burns,Andrew,Jooste,Charl,Schwerhoff,Gregor, 2021. "Climate Modeling for Macroeconomic Policy : A Case Study for Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9780, The World Bank.
    5. Anton Orlov & Jana Sillmann & Asbjørn Aaheim & Kristin Aunan & Karianne Bruin, 2019. "Economic Losses of Heat-Induced Reductions in Outdoor Worker Productivity: a Case Study of Europe," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 191-211, October.
    6. Martina Sartori & Davide Geneletti & Stefano Schiavo & Rocco Scolozzi, 2017. "To what extent will climate and land-use change affect EU-28 agriculture? A computable general equilibrium analysis," IEFE Working Papers 98, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Nicolas Taconet & Aurélie Méjean & Céline Guivarch, 2020. "Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 15-34, May.
    8. Nina Knittel & Martin W. Jury & Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Gabriel Bachner & Andrea K. Steiner, 2020. "A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 251-269, May.
    9. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," IEFE Working Papers 84, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. Muhammad Zeshan & Jong-Hwan Ko, 2019. "An Analysis of Adaption Policies to Climate Change: Gdyn-W Model," PIDE-Working Papers 2019:159, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    11. Valeria Costantini & Anil Markandya & Elena Paglialunga & Giorgia Sforna, 2018. "Impact and distribution of climatic damages: a methodological proposal with a dynamic CGE model applied to global climate negotiations," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(3), pages 809-843, December.
    12. Mengzhen Zhao & Jason Kai Wei Lee & Tord Kjellstrom & Wenjia Cai, 2021. "Assessment of the economic impact of heat-related labor productivity loss: a systematic review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-16, July.
    13. Shahzad Alvi & Faisal Jamil & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2020. "Do Farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    14. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2017. "The macroeconomic impact of future water scarcity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1141-1162.
    15. Marcus C. Sarofim & Jeremy Martinich & James E. Neumann & Jacqueline Willwerth & Zoe Kerrich & Michael Kolian & Charles Fant & Corinne Hartin, 2021. "A temperature binning approach for multi-sector climate impact analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Fabien Prieur & Martin Quaas & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "Mitigation strategies under the threat of solar radiation management," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    17. Huey-Lin Lee & Yu-Pin Lin & Joy R. Petway, 2018. "Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    18. Martina Sartori & Davide Geneletti & Stefano Schiavo & Rocco Scolozzi, 2017. "The impact of climate and land use change on agriculture in EU28: A computable general equilibrium analysis," EcoMod2017 10420, EcoMod.
    19. Simola, Heli, 2020. "Climate change and the Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 11/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    20. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "A review of the future impact of climate change in Chile: economic output and other outcomes," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 1-22, December.
    21. Yu, Wusheng & Clora, Francesco & Costa, Louis & Baudry, Gino, 2021. "Dietary Transitions As Climate Mitigation Measures in Europe: Implications of Supply-Side Responses and Trade Policy Regimes," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315912, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Frank Vöhringer & Marc Vielle & Philippe Thalmann & Anita Frehner & Wolfgang Knoke & Dario Stocker & Boris Thurm, 2019. "Costs And Benefits Of Climate Change In Switzerland," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-34, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Environment; Industrial Economics; Economic Growth; Economic Theory&Research; Climate Change and Health; Climate Change and Environment; Science of Climate Change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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