IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/enreec/v21y2002i1p47-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Tol

Abstract

A selection of the potential impacts of climate change – on agriculture,forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energyconsumption, and water resources – are estimated and valued in monetaryterms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internallyconsistent studies using GCM based scenarios. An underestimate of theuncertainty is given. New impact studies can be included following themeta-analytical methods described here. A 1 °C increase in the globalmean surface air temperature would have, on balance, a positive effect onthe OECD, China, and the Middle East, and a negative effect on othercountries. Confidence intervals of regionally aggregated impacts, however,include both positive and negative impacts for all regions. Global estimatesdepend on the aggregation rule. Using a simple sum, world impact of a1 °C warming would be a positive 2% of GDP, with a standarddeviation of 1%. Using globally averaged values, world impact would be anegative 3% (standard deviation: 1%). Using equity weighting, worldimpact would amount to 0% (standard deviation: 1%). Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:21:y:2002:i:1:p:47-73
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1014500930521
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1014500930521
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/A:1014500930521?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
    2. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economic Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1996. "Land use and cover in ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 157-181, June.
    4. Kahnemant, Daniel & Knetsch, Jack L., 1992. "Contingent valuation and the value of public goods: Reply," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 90-94, January.
    5. Donald H. Rosenthal & Howard K. Gruenspecht & Emily A. Moran, 1995. "Effects of Global Warming on Energy Use for Space Heating and Cooling in the United States," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 77-96.
    6. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39, January.
    7. Samuel Fankhauser & Richard Tol & DAVID Pearce, 1997. "The Aggregation of Climate Change Damages: a Welfare Theoretic Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 249-266, October.
    8. Tol, Richard S. J., 1996. "The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 67-90, October.
    9. Yohe Gary & Neumann James & Ameden Holly, 1995. "Assessing the Economic Cost of Greenhouse-Induced Sea Level Rise: Methods and Application in Support of a National Survey," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 78-97, November.
    10. Fankhauser, Samuel & Smith, Joel B. & Tol, Richard S. J., 1999. "Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 67-78, July.
    11. Fankhauser, Samuel & Tol, Richard S.J. & Pearce, David W., 1998. "Extensions and alternatives to climate change impact valuation: on the critique of IPCC Working Group III's impact estimates," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 59-81, February.
    12. Van Praag, Bernard M. S., 1988. "Climate equivalence scales : An application of a general method," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1019-1024, April.
    13. Schimmelpfennig, David & Lewandrowski, Jan & Tsigas, Marinos & Parry, Ian, 1996. "Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Issues of Longrun Sustainability," Agricultural Economic Reports 262033, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    14. Frankhauser, Samuel & Tol, Richard SJ, 1996. "Climate change costs : Recent advancements in the economic assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 665-673, July.
    15. Paul Frijters & Bernard M.S. van Praag, 1998. "Climate equivalence scales and the effects of climate change on Russian welfare and well-being," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 055a, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    16. Andreoni, James, 1988. "Privately provided public goods in a large economy: The limits of altruism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 57-73, February.
    17. Samuel Fankhauser, 1994. "The Social Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Expected Value Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 157-184.
    18. Maddison, David & Bigano, Andrea, 2003. "The amenity value of the Italian climate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 319-332, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. Fankhauser & R. Tol, 1997. "The social costs of climate change: The IPCC second assessment report and beyond," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 385-403, December.
    2. Roy Darwin & Richard Tol, 2001. "Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(2), pages 113-129, June.
    3. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-22.
    4. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    5. Kolstad, Charles D. & Toman, Michael, 2005. "The Economics of Climate Policy," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1561-1618, Elsevier.
    6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "The Marginal Costs Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Assessment Of The Uncertainties," Working Papers FNU-19, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2003.
    7. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
    8. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    9. Richard S.J. Tol & Samuel Fankhauser & Richard G. Richels & Joel B. Smith, 2000. "How Much Damage Will Climate Change Do? Recent Estimates," Working Papers FNU-2, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2000.
    10. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2007. "Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(3), pages 549-571, July.
    11. Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Exchange Rates And Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-45, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004.
    12. Wietze Lise & Richard S.J. Tol, 2000. "Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand," Working Papers FNU-1, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2000.
    13. Turpie, Jane K., 2003. "The existence value of biodiversity in South Africa: how interest, experience, knowledge, income and perceived level of threat influence local willingness to pay," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 199-216, September.
    14. Christian Azar, 1999. "Weight Factors in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(3), pages 249-268, April.
    15. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Climate, Development And Malaria: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-16, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2002.
    16. Tol, Richard S. J., 2002. "Welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change: an application of fund," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 367-376, July.
    17. David Anthoff & Richard Tol, 2009. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced Growth Equivalent: An Application of FUND," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 351-367, July.
    18. Ron Balvers & Ding Du & Xiaobing Zhao, 2009. "What Do Financial Markets Reveal about Global Warming?," Working Papers 09-04, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    19. Tol, Richard S. J. & Verheyen, Roda, 2004. "State responsibility and compensation for climate change damages--a legal and economic assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1109-1130, June.
    20. Ochuodho, Thomas O. & Lantz, Van A. & Olale, Edward, 2016. "Economic impacts of climate change considering individual, additive, and simultaneous changes in forest and agriculture sectors in Canada: A dynamic, multi-regional CGE model analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 43-51.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:21:y:2002:i:1:p:47-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.