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The Marginal Costs Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Assessment Of The Uncertainties

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  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

88 estimates of the marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions were gathered from 22 published studies and combined to form a probability density function. The uncertainty is strongly rightskewed. If all studies are combined, the mode is $5/tC, the mean $104/tC, and the 95 percentile $446/tC. Studies with a lower discount rate have higher estimates and a much greater uncertainties. Similarly, studies, which use equity weighing, have higher estimates and larger uncertainties. Interestingly, studies that are peer-reviewed have lower estimates and smaller uncertainties. Using standard assumptions about discounting and aggregation, the marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions unlikely to exceed $50/tC, and probably much smaller.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "The Marginal Costs Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Assessment Of The Uncertainties," Working Papers FNU-19, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:19
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    File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/margcostunc.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard S. J. Tol, 1999. "The Marginal Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 61-81.
    2. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
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    5. Fankhauser, Samuel & Tol, Richard S.J. & Pearce, David W., 1998. "Extensions and alternatives to climate change impact valuation: on the critique of IPCC Working Group III's impact estimates," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 59-81, February.
    6. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
    7. Azar, Christian & Sterner, Thomas, 1996. "Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 169-184, November.
    8. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
    9. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    10. Samuel Fankhauser & Richard Tol & DAVID Pearce, 1997. "The Aggregation of Climate Change Damages: a Welfare Theoretic Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 249-266, October.
    11. Richard S.J. Tol & Thomas E. Downing & Samuel Fankhauser & Richard G. Richels & Joel B. Smith, 2001. "Progress In Estimating The Marginal Costs Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Working Papers FNU-4, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2001.
    12. Christian Azar, 1999. "Weight Factors in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(3), pages 249-268, April.
    13. Plambeck, Erica L & Hope, Chris, 1996. "PAGE95 : An updated valuation of the impacts of global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 783-793, September.
    14. William D. Nordhaus & David Popp, 1997. "What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-45.
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    16. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle & Lijuan Zhang, 2009. "The impact of climate change on China's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 323-337, May.
    17. Samuel Fankhauser, 1994. "The Social Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Expected Value Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 157-184.
    18. John Reilly & Kenneth Richards, 1993. "Climate change damage and the trace gas index issue," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(1), pages 41-61, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wahba, Mohammed & Hope, Chris, 2006. "The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3305-3316, November.
    2. Vaal, Albert de & Yetkiner, I. Hakan & Zon, Adriaan van, 2002. "The cyclical advancement of drastic technologies," CCSO Working Papers 200217, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    3. Stagnaro, Carlo, 2008. "Europe 2020: an Alternative Proposal," MPRA Paper 48743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Saleemul Huq & Michael Grubb, 2007. "Preface," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 645-649, June.
      • Michael Grubb, 2003. "Preface," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(sup1), pages 1-1, November.
      • Michael Grubb, 2006. "Preface," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 349-350, July.
    5. Atkinson, Giles & Gundimeda, Haripriya, 2006. "Accounting for India's forest wealth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(4), pages 462-476, October.
    6. Anthony Owen, 2006. "Nuclear Power for Australia?," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 195-210.
    7. Giles Atkinson & Haripriya Gundimeda, 2006. "Accounting for India’s Forest Wealth," Development Economics Working Papers 22494, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emission Leakage; Agricultural Sector Model; Greenhouse Gas Policy; Mitigation; Carbon Sequestration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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