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Europe's long-term climate target: A critical evaluation

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  • Tol, Richard S.J.

Abstract

The European Commission and a number of its Member States have adopted a stringent long-term target for climate policy, namely that the global mean temperature should not rise more than 2°C above pre-industrial times. This target is supported by rather thin arguments, based on inadequate methods, sloppy reasoning, and selective citation. In the scientific literature on “dangerous interference with the climate system”, most studies discuss either methodological issues, or carefully lay out the arguments for or against a particular target. These studies do not make specific recommendations, with the exception of cost-benefit analyses which argue for less stringent policy targets. However, there are also a few studies that recommend a target without the supporting argumentation. Overall, the 2°C target of the EU seems unfounded.
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  • Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "Europe's long-term climate target: A critical evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 424-432, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:35:y:2007:i:1:p:424-432
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    2. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
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    5. Megan Ceronsky & David Anthoff & Cameron Hepburn & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Checking The Price Tag On Catastrophe: The Social Cost Of Carbon Under Non-Linear Climate Response," Working Papers FNU-87, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2005.
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    15. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maren A. Lau & Richard S.J. Tol & Zhou Yuan, 2004. "A Global Database Of Domestic And International Tourist Numbers At National And Subnational Level," Working Papers FNU-54, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    16. Katrin Rehdanz & David Maddison, 2004. "The Amenity Value of Climate to German Households," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 414, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    21. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
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    23. Thomas Heinzow & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Estimates Of The External And Sustainability Costs Of Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-32, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
    24. Richard S. J. Tol & Nicolien Van Der Grijp & Alexander A. Olsthoorn & Peter E. Van Der Werff, 2003. "Adapting to Climate: A Case Study on Riverine Flood Risks in the Netherlands," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 575-583, June.
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    28. Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "On Multi-Period Allocation Of Tradable Emission Permits," Working Papers FNU-43, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
    29. Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Adaptation And Mitigation: Trade-Offs In Substance And Methods," Working Papers FNU-33, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
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    1. Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Intra- and extra-union flexibility in meeting the European Union's emission reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4329-4336, November.
    2. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Europe’s Climate Target for 2050: An Assessment," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(6), pages 330-335, November.
    3. Jobert, Thomas & Karanfil, Fatih & Tykhonenko, Anna, 2010. "Convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the EU: Legend or reality?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1364-1373, November.
    4. Richard S. J. Tol, 2007. "Climate Policy Versus Development Aid," Papers WP221, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Piero Morseletto & Frank Biermann & Philipp Pattberg, 2017. "Governing by targets: reductio ad unum and evolution of the two-degree climate target," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 655-676, October.
    6. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-22.
    7. Onno Kuik & Luke Brander & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Marginal Abatement Costs of Carbon-Dioxide Emissions: A Meta-Analysis," Papers WP248, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Tol, Richard S. J., 2007. "Irish Climate Change Policy for 2012: An Assessment," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(4-Winter), pages 104-117.
    9. Pushpam Kumar & Uwe A. Schneider, 2008. "Greenhouse gas emission mitigation through agriculture," Working Papers FNU-155, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
    10. Kopsakangas Savolainen, Maria & Svento, Rauli, 2012. "Real-Time Pricing in the Nordic Power markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1131-1142.
    11. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan & Hirte, Georg, 2010. "The drawbacks and opportunities of carbon charges in metropolitan areas -- A spatial general equilibrium approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-357, December.
    12. Richard S.J. Tol, 2019. "The elusive consensus on climate change," Working Paper Series 0319, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    13. Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Intra-union flexibility of non-ETS emission reduction obligations in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1745-1752, May.
    14. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Costs And Benefits Of The Paris Climate Targets," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(04), pages 1-18, November.
    15. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & O'Brien, Martin, 2007. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2007," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20074, June.
    16. Edvardsson Björnberg, Karin, 2013. "Rational climate mitigation goals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 285-292.
    17. Olivier Godard, 2007. "Climat et générations futures - Un examen critique du débat académique suscité par le Rapport Stern," Working Papers hal-00243059, HAL.
    18. Wajahat Ali & Azrai Abdullah & Muhammad Azam, 2016. "The Dynamic Linkage between Technological Innovation and carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Bound Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 389-400.
    19. Dietz, Simon, 2009. "From efficiency to justice: utility as the informational basis of climate change strategies, and some alternatives," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37616, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Fouquet, Roger, 2010. "The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6586-6596, November.
    21. Lilis Yuaningsih & R. Adjeng Mariana Febrianti, 2021. "The Nexus between Technological Advancement and CO2 Emissions in Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 160-169.
    22. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "The climate niche of Homo Sapiens," Papers 2306.00002, arXiv.org.
    23. Simon Dietz, 2009. "From efficiency to justice: utility as the informational basis of climate change strategies, and some alternatives," GRI Working Papers 13, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    24. Briec, Walter & Peypoch, Nicolas & Ratsimbanierana, Hermann, 2011. "Productivity growth and biased technological change in hydroelectric dams," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 853-858, September.

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