IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v38y2010i11p6586-6596.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service

Author

Listed:
  • Fouquet, Roger

Abstract

This paper reviews past energy transitions by sector and service to identify features that may be useful for future transitions. Although often considered a single event, the transition from traditional energy sources to fossil fuels involved numerous services and sectors at different times between 1500 and 1920. The main economic drivers identified for energy transitions were the opportunities to produce cheaper or better energy services. The existence of a niche market willing to pay more for these characteristics enabled new energy sources and technologies to be refined gradually until they could compete with the incumbent energy source. Nevertheless, this implied that, on average, the whole innovation chain took more than 100 years and the diffusion phase nearly 50 years. In the same way, low-carbon energy sources and technologies offer an additional characteristic (i.e. low carbon impact), which might be able to develop gradually in a niche market until they can compete with fossil fuels. However, because of consumers' tendency to free-ride, a successful transition will need governments to provide protection of this niche market--possibly for decades. Based on past experiences, a complete transition to a low carbon economy is likely to be very slow.

Suggested Citation

  • Fouquet, Roger, 2010. "The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6586-6596, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:11:p:6586-6596
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(10)00492-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fouquet, Roger, 1998. "The United Kingdom demand for renewable electricity in a liberalised market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 281-293, March.
    2. Terry Barker & S. Serban Scrieciu & Tim Foxon, 2008. "Achieving the G8 50% target: modelling induced and accelerated technological change using the macro-econometric model E3MG," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 30-45, December.
    3. Haas, Reinhard & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Ajanovic, Amela & Faber, Thomas & Kranzl, Lukas & Müller, Andreas & Resch, Gustav, 2008. "Towards sustainability of energy systems: A primer on how to apply the concept of energy services to identify necessary trends and policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4012-4021, November.
    4. Devine, Warren D., 1983. "From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 347-372, June.
    5. Longo, Alberto & Markandya, Anil & Petrucci, Marta, 2008. "The internalization of externalities in the production of electricity: Willingness to pay for the attributes of a policy for renewable energy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 140-152, August.
    6. Pachauri, Shonali & Jiang, Leiwen, 2008. "The household energy transition in India and China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4022-4035, November.
    7. Roger Fouquet, 2010. "Divergences in the Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and of Energy Services," Working Papers 2010-03, BC3.
    8. Grubler, Arnulf & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Victor, David G., 1999. "Dynamics of energy technologies and global change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 247-280, May.
    9. Marcotullio, Peter J. & Schulz, Niels B., 2007. "Comparison of Energy Transitions in the United States and Developing and Industrializing Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1650-1683, October.
    10. Jefferson, Michael, 2008. "Accelerating the transition to sustainable energy systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4116-4125, November.
    11. Heltberg, Rasmus, 2004. "Fuel switching: evidence from eight developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 869-887, September.
    12. Peter King, 2005. "The production and consumption of bar iron in early modern England and Wales," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 58(1), pages 1-33, February.
    13. Geels, Frank W., 2002. "Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1257-1274, December.
    14. Leach, Gerald, 1992. "The energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 116-123, February.
    15. Gales, Ben & Kander, Astrid & Malanima, Paolo & Rubio, Mar, 2007. "North versus South: Energy transition and energy intensity in Europe over 200 years," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 219-253, August.
    16. Johan Schot & Frank Geels, 2007. "Niches in evolutionary theories of technical change," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 605-622, October.
    17. Jae Edmonds & Leon Clarke & Marshall Wise & Hugh Pitcher & Steve Smith, 2008. "Implications for the USA of stabilization of radiative forcing at 3.4 W/m-super-2," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 76-92, December.
    18. Pollitt, M.G., 2010. "UK Renewable Energy Policy Since Privatisation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1007, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Roger Fouquet & Peter J. G. Pearson, 1998. "A Thousand Years of Energy Use in the United Kingdom," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-41.
    20. Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "Europe's long-term climate target: A critical evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 424-432, January.
    21. Gross, Robert, 2004. "Technologies and innovation for system change in the UK: status, prospects and system requirements of some leading renewable energy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(17), pages 1905-1919, November.
    22. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
    23. Grubb,Michael & Jamasb,Tooraj & Pollitt,Michael G. (ed.), 2008. "Delivering a Low Carbon Electricity System," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521888844, October.
    24. Humphrey, William S. & Stanislaw, Joe, 1979. "Economic growth and energy consumption in the UK, 1700-1975," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-42, March.
    25. M. E. Falkus, 1967. "The British Gas Industry before 1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 20(3), pages 494-508, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fouquet, Roger, 2012. "The demand for environmental quality in driving transitions to low-polluting energy sources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 138-149.
    2. Batinge, Benjamin & Musango, Josephine Kaviti & Brent, Alan C., 2019. "Sustainable energy transition framework for unmet electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1090-1099.
    3. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2023. "Human capital and energy consumption: Six centuries of evidence from the United Kingdom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    5. Agovino, Massimiliano & Bartoletto, Silvana & Garofalo, Antonio, 2019. "Modelling the relationship between energy intensity and GDP for European countries: An historical perspective (1800–2000)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 114-134.
    6. Peter A. O'Connor & Cutler J. Cleveland, 2014. "U.S. Energy Transitions 1780–2010," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-39, November.
    7. Grubler, Arnulf, 2012. "Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 8-16.
    8. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    9. Rubio, M.d.Mar & Folchi, Mauricio, 2012. "Will small energy consumers be faster in transition? Evidence from the early shift from coal to oil in Latin America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 50-61.
    10. Ahmed Moustapha Mfokeu & Elie Virgile Chrysostome & Jean-Pierre Gueyie & Olivier Ebenezer Mun Ngapna, 2023. "Consumer Motivation behind the Use of Ecological Charcoal in Cameroon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, January.
    11. Wang, Chengchao & Yang, Yusheng & Zhang, Yaoqi, 2012. "Rural household livelihood change, fuelwood substitution, and hilly ecosystem restoration: Evidence from China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2475-2482.
    12. Rahut, Dil Bahadur & Behera, Bhagirath & Ali, Akhter, 2016. "Patterns and determinants of household use of fuels for cooking: Empirical evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 93-104.
    13. Jeuland, Marc & Fetter, T. Robert & Li, Yating & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K. & Usmani, Faraz & Bluffstone, Randall A. & Chávez, Carlos & Girardeau, Hannah & Hassen, Sied & Jagger, Pamela & Jaime, Mónica , 2021. "Is energy the golden thread? A systematic review of the impacts of modern and traditional energy use in low- and middle-income countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    14. Kriechbaum, Michael & Posch, Alfred & Hauswiesner, Angelika, 2021. "Hype cycles during socio-technical transitions: The dynamics of collective expectations about renewable energy in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    15. McMeekin, Andrew & Geels, Frank W. & Hodson, Mike, 2019. "Mapping the winds of whole system reconfiguration: Analysing low-carbon transformations across production, distribution and consumption in the UK electricity system (1990–2016)," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1216-1231.
    16. Cheng, Chao-yo & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2014. "Fuel stacking in India: Changes in the cooking and lighting mix, 1987–2010," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 306-317.
    17. Olabisi, Michael & Tschirley, David L. & Nyange, David & Awokuse, Titus, 2019. "Energy demand substitution from biomass to imported kerosene: Evidence from Tanzania," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 243-252.
    18. Sara Helen Kaweesa & Hamid El Bilali & Willibald Loiskandl, 2021. "Analysing the socio-technical transition to conservation agriculture in Uganda through the lens of the multi-level perspective," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7606-7626, May.
    19. Charlie Wilson & Arnulf Grubler, 2011. "Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 165-184, August.
    20. Raul Jimenez & Ariel Yépez-García, 2016. "Composition and Sensitivity of Residential Energy Consumption," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 95257, Inter-American Development Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:11:p:6586-6596. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.