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The Hotelling's Rule Revisited in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

Author

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  • Beatriz Gaitan de Soto
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

  • I. Hakan Yetkiner

Abstract

The validity of the Hotelling?s rule, the fundamental theorem of nonrenewable resource eco- nomics, is limited by its partial equilibrium nature. One symptom of this limitation may be the disagreement between the empirical evidence, showing stable or declining resource prices, and the rule, predicting exponentially increasing prices. In this paper, we study the optimal depletion of a nonrenewable resource in a dynamic general equilibrium framework.We show that in, the long run, the price of a nonrenewable (i) is constant when the nonrenewable is essential in production, and (ii) it increases only if the rate of return of capital is larger than the capital depreciation rate and if the non-renewable is an inessential input in production. We believe that our model offers a theoretical explanation to non-growing nonrenewable prices and hence at least partially solves the paradox between the Hotelling's rule and the empirical regularities. We also show that two factors play a crucial role in determining the long run behavior of non-renewable prices, namely the elasticity of substitution between input factors, and the long run behavior of the real interest rate. Another major achievement of this study is the full analytical solution of the model under a Cobb-Douglas technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Beatriz Gaitan de Soto & Richard S.J. Tol & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2004. "The Hotelling's Rule Revisited in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers FNU-44, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gary W. Yohe & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "Precaution And A Dismal Theorem: Implications For Climate Policy And Climate Research," Working Papers FNU-145, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2007.
    2. Ýstemi Berk & Ý. Hakan Yetkiner, 2013. "Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence in the Long Run," Working Papers 1303, Izmir University of Economics.
    3. Yang, Honglin & Wang, Lin & Tian, Lixin, 2015. "Evolution of competition in energy alternative pathway and the influence of energy policy on economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 223-233.
    4. Ý. Hakan Yetkiner, 2007. "Does Price of an Essential Non-Renewable Resource Necessarily Grow?," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Globalization and Its Discontents, pages 131-147, Izmir University of Economics.
    5. Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J. & Wetzel, Patrick, 2006. "Ocean carbon sinks and international climate policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3516-3526, December.
    6. Katrin Rehdanz & David Maddison, 2009. "The amenity value of climate to households in Germany," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 150-167, January.
    7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Integrated Assessment Modelling," Working Papers FNU-102, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
    8. Hamilton, Jacqueline M., 2007. "Coastal landscape and the hedonic price of accommodation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 594-602, May.
    9. Waldemar Marz, 2019. "Complex dimensions of climate policy: the role of political economy, capital markets, and urban form," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 85, April.
    10. Pushpam Kumar & Uwe A. Schneider, 2008. "Greenhouse gas emission mitigation through agriculture," Working Papers FNU-155, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
    11. Karolina Ryszka, 2013. "Resource Extraction in a Political Economy Framework," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-094/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "Europe's long-term climate target: A critical evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 424-432, January.
    13. Berk, Istemi & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "Energy prices and economic growth in the long run: Theory and evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 228-235.
    14. Marz, Waldemar & Pfeiffer, Johannes, 2023. "Fossil resource market power and capital markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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