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The Risk-Adjusted Carbon Price

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  • Ton S. van den Bremer
  • Frederick van der Ploeg

Abstract

The social cost of carbon is the expected present value of damages from emitting one ton of carbon today. We use perturbation theory to derive an approximate tractable expression for this cost adjusted for climatic and economic risk. We allow for different aversion to risk and intertemporal fluctuations, skewness and dynamics in the risk distributions of climate sensitivity and the damage ratio, and correlated shocks. We identify prudence, insurance, and exposure effects, reproduce earlier analytical results, and offer analytical insights into numerical results on the effects of economic and damage ratio uncertainty and convex damages on the optimal carbon price.

Suggested Citation

  • Ton S. van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2021. "The Risk-Adjusted Carbon Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2782-2810, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:111:y:2021:i:9:p:2782-2810
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20180517
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    Cited by:

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    2. Stan W.J. Olijslagers & Rick van der Ploeg & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2021. "On Current and Future Carbon Prices in a Risky World," CESifo Working Paper Series 9092, CESifo.
    3. Frederick Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2019. "Simple Rules for Climate Policy and Integrated Assessment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 77-108, January.
    4. Rabah Arezki & Simeon Djankov & Ha Nguyen & Ivan Yotzov, 2022. "The Political Costs of Oil Price Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9763, CESifo.
    5. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting And Climate Policy," OxCarre Working Papers 244, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    7. Hambel, Christoph & Kraft, Holger & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2021. "The social cost of carbon in a non-cooperative world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Benmir, Ghassane & Jaccard, Ivan & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2020. "Green asset pricing," Working Paper Series 2477, European Central Bank.
    9. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2021. "Optimal carbon pricing in general equilibrium: Temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Hambel, Christoph & Kraft, Holger & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2020. "Asset diversification versus climate action," CEPR Discussion Papers 14863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Rick Van der Ploeg & Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft, 2020. "Asset Pricing and Decarbonization: Diversification versus Climate Action," Economics Series Working Papers 901, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Sareh Vosooghi & Maria Arvaniti & Rick van der Ploeg, 2022. "Self-Enforcing Climate Coalitions for Farsighted Countries: Integrated Analysis of Heterogeneous Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 9768, CESifo.
    13. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2019. "The agnostic's response to climate deniers: Price carbon!," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 70-84.
    14. Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/327, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    15. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117609, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Ottmar Edenhofer & Kai Lessmann & Ibrahim Tahri, 2021. "Asset Pricing and the Carbon Beta of Externalities," CESifo Working Paper Series 9269, CESifo.
    17. Traeger, Christian, 2021. "ACE - Analytic Climate Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117610, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Cees Withagen, 2022. "On Simple Rules for the Social Cost of Carbon," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(2), pages 461-481, June.
    20. Jaimes Bonilla, Richard, 2020. "Essays in macroeconomic theory and natural resources," Other publications TiSEM 48a44548-df1e-44f9-8e2e-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Wang, Xinyu & Sethi, Suresh P. & Chang, Shuhua, 2022. "Pollution abatement using cap-and-trade in a dynamic supply chain and its coordination," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    22. Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "Costs and Benefits of the Paris Climate Targets," Papers 2209.00900, arXiv.org.
    23. Jussi Lintunen & Lauri Vilmi, 2021. "Optimal Emission Prices Over the Business Cycles," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(1), pages 135-167, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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