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Carbon pricing under uncertainty

Author

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  • Frederick Ploeg

    (University of Oxford
    University Amsterdam)

Abstract

Economists have adopted the Pigouvian approach to climate policy, which sets the carbon price to the social cost of carbon. We adjust this carbon price for macroeconomic uncertainty and disasters by deriving the risk-adjusted discount rate. We highlight ethics- versus market-based calibrations and discuss the effects of a falling term structure of the discount rate. Given the wide range of estimates used for marginal damages and the discount rate, it is unsurprising that negotiators and policy makers have rejected the Pigouvian approach and adopted a more pragmatic approach based on a temperature cap. The corresponding cap on cumulative emissions is lower if risk tolerance and temperature sensitivity are more uncertain. The carbon price then grows much faster than under the Pigouvian approach and discuss how this rate of growth is adjusted by economic and abatement cost risks. We then analyse how policy uncertainty and technological breakthrough can lead to the risk of stranded assets. Finally, we discuss various obstacles to successful carbon pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:28:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s10797-021-09686-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-021-09686-x
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    Cited by:

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    3. Haktanır, Elif & Kahraman, Cengiz, 2023. "Intuitionistic fuzzy risk adjusted discount rate and certainty equivalent methods for risky projects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    4. Tikoudis, Ioannis, 2023. "Revisiting the Pigouvian tax in urban roads: Housing supply restrictions, leaking profits and spatial inequality," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social cost of carbon; Asset pricing; Carbon pricing; Risk and uncertainty; Disasters; Temperature cap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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