IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/wpaper/894.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stranded Assets In The Transition To A Carbon-Free Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Rick Van der Ploeg
  • Armon Rezai

Abstract

Assets in the fossil fuel industries are at risk of losing market value due to anticipated breakthroughs in renewable technology and governments stepping up climate policies in the light of the Paris commitments to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius. Stranded assets arise due to uncertainty about the future timing of these two types of events and substantial intertemporal and intersectoral investment adjustment costs. Stranding of assets mostly affects the 20 biggest oil, gas and coal companies who have been responsible for at least a third of global warming since 1965, but also carbon-intensive industries such as steel, aluminium, cement, plastics and greenhouse horticulture. A disorderly transition to the carbon-free economy will lead to stranded assets and legal claims. Institutional investors should be aware of these financial risks. A broader definition of stranded assets also includes countries reliant on fossil fuel exports and workers with technology-specific skills.

Suggested Citation

  • Rick Van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2019. "Stranded Assets In The Transition To A Carbon-Free Economy," Economics Series Working Papers 894, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:894
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:15ff28df-a308-4aa5-a956-3b53bbae9539
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Michel Moreaux & Mabel Tidball, 2008. "Ordering the Extraction of Polluting Nonrenewable Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1128-1144, June.
    2. Elizabeth Baldwin & Yongyang Cai & Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2018. "To Build or Not to Build? Capital Stocks and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6884, CESifo.
    3. Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Jeffrey Sachs & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Making Carbon Taxation A Generational Win Win," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(1), pages 3-46, February.
    4. Jaakkola, Niko & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Non-cooperative and cooperative climate policies with anticipated breakthrough technology," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 42-66.
    5. Lucas Bretschger & Susanne Soretz, 2018. "Stranded Assets: How Policy Uncertainty affects Capital, Growth, and the Environment," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 18/288, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    6. Frederick Ploeg, 2018. "The safe carbon budget," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 47-59, March.
    7. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Heal, Geoffrey, 1994. "Who should abate carbon emissions? : An international viewpoint," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 443-449, April.
    8. Coulomb, Renaud & Henriet, Fanny, 2018. "The Grey Paradox: How fossil-fuel owners can benefit from carbon taxation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 206-223.
    9. Céline Guivarch & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2011. "Existing infrastructure and the 2°C target," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 801-805, December.
    10. Pfeiffer, Alexander & Millar, Richard & Hepburn, Cameron & Beinhocker, Eric, 2016. "The ‘2°C capital stock’ for electricity generation: Committed cumulative carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector and the transition to a green economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1395-1408.
    11. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, June.
    12. Stefano Carattini & Suphi Sen, 2019. "Carbon Taxes and Stranded Assets: Evidence from Washington State," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1910, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    13. Larry Karp, 2017. "Provision of a Public Good with Multiple Dynasties," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(607), pages 2641-2664.
    14. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    15. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    16. Simon Dietz & Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai & Frank Venmans, 2021. "Are Economists Getting Climate Dynamics Right and Does It Matter?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(5), pages 895-921.
    17. H. Peyton Young, 2015. "The Evolution of Social Norms," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 359-387, August.
    18. Ben Caldecott, 2017. "Introduction to special issue: stranded assets and the environment," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, January.
    19. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2020. "All or nothing: Climate policy when assets can become stranded," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. Myles R. Allen, 2016. "Drivers of peak warming in a consumption-maximizing world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 684-686, July.
    21. Criqui, P. & Mima, S. & Menanteau, P. & Kitous, A., 2015. "Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 119-136.
    22. Richard J. Millar & Cameron Hepburn & John Beddington & Myles R. Allen, 2018. "Principles to guide investment towards a stable climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 2-4, January.
    23. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    24. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Post-Print halshs-01905999, HAL.
    25. Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2019. "Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 108-129.
    26. Armon Rezai & Duncan K. Foley & Lance Taylor, 2016. "Global Warming and Economic Externalities," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Graciela Chichilnisky & Armon Rezai (ed.), The Economics of the Global Environment, pages 447-470, Springer.
    27. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    28. Mukanjari, Samson & Sterner, Thomas, 2018. "Do Markets Trump Politics? Evidence from Fossil Market Reactions to the Paris Agreement and the U.S. Election," Working Papers in Economics 728, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    29. Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Pricing climate change risks: CAPM with rare disasters and stochastic probabilities," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/311, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    30. Bertram, Christoph & Johnson, Nils & Luderer, Gunnar & Riahi, Keywan & Isaac, Morna & Eom, Jiyong, 2015. "Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 62-72.
    31. Bård Harstad, 2012. "Buy Coal! A Case for Supply-Side Environmental Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 77-115.
    32. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
    33. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    34. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 283-288, April.
    35. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2020. "The risk of policy tipping and stranded carbon assets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    36. Larry Karp, 2017. "Provision of a Public Good with Multiple Dynasties," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(607), pages 2641-2664, December.
    37. Bovenberg, A. Lans & Heijdra, Ben J., 1998. "Environmental tax policy and intergenerational distribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, January.
    38. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Marcelo Ochoa, 2016. "Price of Long-Run Temperature Shifts in Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 22529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Oliver D. Bettis & Simon Dietz & Nick G. Silver, 2017. "The risk of climate ruin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 109-118, January.
    40. Howard Covington & James Thornton & Cameron Hepburn, 2016. "Global warming: Shareholders must vote for climate-change mitigation," Nature, Nature, vol. 530(7589), pages 156-156, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Godin, Antoine & Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Trsek, Stefan, 2021. "Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    3. Egli, Florian & Schärer, David & Steffen, Bjarne, 2022. "Determinants of fossil fuel divestment in European pension funds," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Claudia Kemfert & Fabian Präger & Isabell Braunger & Franziska M. Hoffart & Hanna Brauers, 2022. "The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 582-587, July.
    5. Victor Ajayi & Michael Pollitt, 2022. "Green growth and net zero policy in the UK: some conceptual and measurement issues," Working Papers 024, The Productivity Institute.
    6. Baer, Moritz & Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme, 2021. "It takes two to dance: Institutional dynamics and climate-related financial policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    7. Hambel, Christoph & Kraft, Holger & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2020. "Asset diversification versus climate action," CEPR Discussion Papers 14863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Kelly Sims Gallagher & Qi Qi, 2021. "Chinese Overseas Investment Policy: Implications for Climate Change," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(3), pages 260-272, May.
    9. Ferguson-Cradler, Gregory, 2022. "Corporate strategy in the Anthropocene: German electricity utilities and the nuclear sudden stop," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Wadim Strielkowski & Lubomír Civín & Elena Tarkhanova & Manuela Tvaronavičienė & Yelena Petrenko, 2021. "Renewable Energy in the Sustainable Development of Electrical Power Sector: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-24, December.
    11. Agliardi, Elettra & Agliardi, Rossella, 2021. "Pricing climate-related risks in the bond market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2022. "A perspective on treaties, maximum wages, and carbon currencies: Innovative policy instruments for global decarbonization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    13. Michael Grubb & Rutger-Jan Lange & Nicolas Cerkez & Pablo Salas & Jean-Francois Mercure & Ida Sognnaes, 2020. "Taking Time Seriously: Implications for Optimal Climate Policy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-083/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Xu, Wenli, 2020. "A Baseline DSGE model of Climate Change for Climate Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 109234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hansen, T.A., 2022. "Stranded assets and reduced profits: Analyzing the economic underpinnings of the fossil fuel industry's resistance to climate stabilization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    16. Irene Monasterolo, 2020. "Embedding Finance in the Macroeconomics of Climate Change: Research Challenges and Opportunities Ahead," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(04), pages 25-32, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2020. "The risk of policy tipping and stranded carbon assets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Rick Van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2018. "Climate Policy and Stranded Carbon Assets: A Financial Perspective," OxCarre Working Papers 206, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    4. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    6. Rick van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8441, CESifo.
    7. van den Bijgaart, I & Rodríguez, M, 2020. "Closing wells; fossil exploration and abandonment in the energy transition," Documentos de Trabajo 018249, Universidad del Rosario.
    8. Yongyang Cai, 2020. "The Role of Uncertainty in Controlling Climate Change," Papers 2003.01615, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    9. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    10. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Godin, Antoine & Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Trsek, Stefan, 2021. "Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2020. "Race to burn the last ton of carbon and the risk of stranded assets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Francesca Diluiso & Barbara Annicchiarico & Matthias Kalkuhl & Jan C. Minx, 2020. "Climate Actions and Stranded Assets: The Role of Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8486, CESifo.
    13. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2021. "Climate change and the financial system: a note," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(1), pages 5-13, March.
    15. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    16. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2020. "All or nothing: Climate policy when assets can become stranded," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    17. Wei Jin & Rick van der Ploeg & Lin Zhang, 2020. "Do We Still Need Carbon-Intensive Capital When Transitioning to a Green Economy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8745, CESifo.
    18. Belfiori, Maria Elisa, 2017. "Carbon pricing, carbon sequestration and social discounting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-17.
    19. Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/327, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    20. Louis Daumas, 2021. "Should we fear transition risks - A review of the applied literature," Working Papers 2021.05, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    de-carbonisation; policy tipping; technology; stranded assets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:894. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Anne Pouliquen to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.