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Pricing climate change risks: CAPM with rare disasters and stochastic probabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Christos Karydas

    (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Anastasios Xepapadeas

    (Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece)

Abstract

There are concerns that climate-related physical and political risks are not yet properly reflected in asset prices. To address these concerns, we develop a dynamic asset pricing framework with rare disasters related to climate change. The novelty of this paper lies in linking carbon emissions and portfolio composition with the stochastically-varying probability of these events. Using theory and simulations we study the implications of the imminent threat of climate change on different market measures and on the participation of carbon-intensive assets in the aggregate portfolio, as well as the conditions that lead to these assets becoming stranded. Our result suggest that climate change implies a positive and increasing risk premium, with the overall equity premium depending on the volatility of the stochastic process that governs climate change risk. Transition risks lower substantially the participation of carbon intensive assets in the market portfolio, which should be fully de-carbonized by the end of the century for the worst IPCC emissions scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Pricing climate change risks: CAPM with rare disasters and stochastic probabilities," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/311, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:19-311
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    File URL: https://www.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/cer-eth/cer-eth-dam/documents/working-papers/WP-19-311.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2020. "Stranded Assets in the Transition to a Carbon-Free Economy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 281-298, October.
    2. Yuanfeng Hu & Yixiang Tian & Luping Zhang, 2023. "Green Bond Pricing and Optimization Based on Carbon Emission Trading and Subsidies: From the Perspective of Externalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Hu, Yuanfeng & Tian, Yixiang, 2024. "The role of green reputation, carbon trading and government intervention in determining the green bond pricing: An externality perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 46-62.
    4. Yongyang Cai, 2020. "The Role of Uncertainty in Controlling Climate Change," Papers 2003.01615, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    5. Xu Lin & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Social Cost of Carbon under Climate Volatility Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-032/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Thomas Douenne, 2020. "Disaster Risks, Disaster Strikes, and Economic Growth: the Role of Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 251-272, October.
    7. Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2021. "Climate change and the financial system: a note," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(1), pages 5-13, March.
    8. Fatouros, Nikos, 2024. "Economic Impact of Natural Disasters Under the New Normal of Climate Change: The Role of Green Technologies," MPRA Paper 120162, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2024.
    9. Agliardi, Elettra & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Temperature targets, deep uncertainty and extreme events in the design of optimal climate policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Agliardi, Elettra & Agliardi, Rossella, 2021. "Pricing climate-related risks in the bond market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Teodora Cristina Barbu & Cosmin-Octavian Cepoi & Crina Raluca Petrescu & Mariana Vuta, 2022. "The Assessment of Climate Risk Impact on the Economy: A Panel Data Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 24(61), pages 597-597, August.
    12. Bakhtmina Zia & Muhammad Rafiq & Shahab E. Saqib & Muhammad Atiq, 2022. "Agricultural Market Competitiveness in the Context of Climate Change: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    14. Svenn Jensen & Christian P. Traeger & Christian Träger, 2021. "Pricing Climate Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 9196, CESifo.
    15. Bingler, Julia Anna & Kraus, Mathias & Leippold, Markus & Webersinke, Nicolas, 2022. "Cheap talk and cherry-picking: What ClimateBert has to say on corporate climate risk disclosures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    16. Patrick Grüning & Justina Banionienė & Lina Dagilienė & Michael Donadelli & Marcus Jüppner & Renatas Kizys & Kai Lessmann, 2021. "The Quadrilemma of a Small Open Circular Economy Through a Prism of the 9R Strategies," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 96, Bank of Lithuania.
    17. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2020. "The risk of policy tipping and stranded carbon assets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    18. Carè, R. & Weber, O., 2023. "How much finance is in climate finance? A bibliometric review, critiques, and future research directions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Shiba Suzuki & Hiroaki Yamagami, 2020. "Optimism on Pollution-Driven Disasters and Asset Prices," Working Papers 2020.06, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    20. Panagiotis Tzouvanas & Renatas Kizys & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Roza Sagitova, 2019. "Can Variations in Temperature Explain the Systemic Risk of European Firms?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(4), pages 1723-1759, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renewable Climate change; Equity premium; Rare events; Fat tails; Stranded assets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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