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The Social Cost of Carbon under Climate Volatility Risk

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  • Lin, Xu
  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder

Abstract

We calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) under stochastic climate volatility resulting from uncertainty about future climate risk regimes where weather extremes are becoming more frequent and intense. Using a stochastic dynamic integrated climate-economy model where representative agents are endowed with Duffie-Epstein recursive preferences, we find that climate volatility risks substantially increase the SCC both in the business-as-usual and optimal abatement policy scenario. We also show that switching to a regime with more intense disasters increases the SCC more than a switch to a regime with more frequent disasters for equal expected value. Overall we show that \textit{stochastic volatility} has a major impact on the SCC.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Xu & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "The Social Cost of Carbon under Climate Volatility Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 18210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18210
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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