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Do Markets Trump Politics? Evidence from Fossil Market Reactions to the Paris Agreement and the U.S. Election

Author

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  • Mukanjari, Samson

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Sterner, Thomas

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement was acclaimed as a milestone for climate negotiations. It has also been criticized – as too soft by environmentalists and too constraining by the current U.S. administration, which has decided to leave. The election of President Trump was itself widely interpreted as unexpected, good news for the fossil industry (and less good for the climate). We seek to evaluate the impact of global climate policy making by studying its effect on the stock market value of energy sector firms. In particular, we study the signing of the Paris Agreement and the latest U.S. presidential election. Using event study and impulse indicator saturation methods, we show that both events had only moderate effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Mukanjari, Samson & Sterner, Thomas, 2018. "Do Markets Trump Politics? Evidence from Fossil Market Reactions to the Paris Agreement and the U.S. Election," Working Papers in Economics 728, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0728
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Colombo, Luca & Labrecciosa, Paola & Long, Ngo Van, 2019. "A Dynamic Analysis of Climate Change Mitigation with Endogenous Number of Contributors: Loose vs Tight Cooperation," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-92, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2020. "Stranded Assets in the Transition to a Carbon-Free Economy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 281-298, October.
    4. El Ouadghiri, Imane & Guesmi, Khaled & Peillex, Jonathan & Ziegler, Andreas, 2021. "Public Attention to Environmental Issues and Stock Market Returns," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    5. Colombo, Luca & Labrecciosa, Paola & Van Long, Ngo, 2022. "A dynamic analysis of international environmental agreements under partial cooperation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2020. "The risk of policy tipping and stranded carbon assets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Truzaar Dordi & Olaf Weber, 2019. "The Impact of Divestment Announcements on the Share Price of Fossil Fuel Stocks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Curcio, Domenico & Gianfrancesco, Igor & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Climate change and financial systemic risk: Evidence from US banks and insurers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Joelle Noailly; Laura Nowzohour; Matthias van den Heuvel, 2021. "Heard the News? Environmental Policy and Clean Investments," CIES Research Paper series 70-2021, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    10. Felix Pretis, 2022. "Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 115-144, September.
    11. Billio, Monica & Costola, Michele & Hristova, Iva & Latino, Carmelo & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2022. "Sustainable finance: A journey toward ESG and climate risk," SAFE Working Paper Series 349, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    12. Yevheniia Antoniuk & Thomas Leirvik, 2021. "Climate Transition Risk and the Impact on Green Bonds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Monasterolo, Irene & de Angelis, Luca, 2020. "Blind to carbon risk? An analysis of stock market reaction to the Paris Agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    14. Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Gehricke, Sebastian A. & Roberts, Helen & Zhang, Renzhu, 2021. "Trump vs. Paris: The impact of climate policy on U.S. listed oil and gas firm returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; election; event study; impulse indicator saturation; Paris climate agreement; Trump.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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