IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v152y2025ics0304393225000510.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices

Author

Listed:
  • Hambel, Christoph
  • van der Ploeg, Frederick

Abstract

We analyze the effects of policy transition risk on asset pricing and the green transition using a global two-sector, macro-finance model of climate and the economy. Policy transition risk results from probabilistic changes between three policy states: no, modest, and ambitious carbon pricing. We show that policy transition risk leads to carbon premiums (i.e. higher expected returns on brown than on green assets), especially if the economy is still quite carbon-intensive and close to the temperature cap, and thus accelerate the green transition. Increased transition risk leads to more precautionary saving and falls in the risk-free rate. We offer extensions to deal with physical risks (temperature-related risk of climate disasters and climate tipping), technology transition risk, and more realistic policy tipping with endogenous transition probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Hambel, Christoph & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2025. "Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0304393225000510
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393225000510
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103780?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaakkola, Niko & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Non-cooperative and cooperative climate policies with anticipated breakthrough technology," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 42-66.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    3. Robert J. Barro & Tao Jin, 2011. "On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1567-1589, September.
    4. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Ton S. van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2021. "The Risk-Adjusted Carbon Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2782-2810, September.
    6. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    7. Derek Lemoine & Christian Traeger, 2014. "Watch Your Step: Optimal Policy in a Tipping Climate," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 137-166, February.
    8. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Donadelli, M. & Jüppner, M. & Riedel, M. & Schlag, C., 2017. "Temperature shocks and welfare costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 331-355.
    10. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2021. "Sustainable investing in equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 550-571.
    11. Shaojun Zhang, 2025. "Carbon Returns across the Globe," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 615-645, February.
    12. Robert F Engle & Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Heebum Lee & Johannes Stroebel, 2020. "Hedging Climate Change News," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1184-1216.
    13. Emanuele Campiglio & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2022. "Macrofinancial Risks of the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(2), pages 173-195.
    14. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2023. "The Political Economics of Green Transitions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(3), pages 1863-1906.
    15. Bauer, Michael & Huber, Daniel & Rudebusch, Glenn & Wilms, Ole, 2022. "Where is the carbon premium? Global performance of green and brown stocks," Other publications TiSEM 6b117156-316d-440a-9fa5-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-394, March.
    17. Yongyang Cai & Thomas S. Lontzek, 2019. "The Social Cost of Carbon with Economic and Climate Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2684-2734.
    18. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 532-536, June.
    19. Kelly, David L. & Tan, Zhuo, 2015. "Learning and climate feedbacks: Optimal climate insurance and fat tails," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 98-122.
    20. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    21. Hambel, Christoph & van der Sanden, Floor, 2025. "Reevaluating the carbon premium: Evidence of green outperformance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    22. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    23. Yongyang Cai & Timothy M. Lenton & Thomas S. Lontzek, 2016. "Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 520-525, May.
    24. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    25. David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Kris Boudt & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2023. "Climate Change Concerns and the Performance of Green vs. Brown Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7607-7632, December.
    26. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2019. "JEEA-FBBVA LECTURE 2017: The Dynamics of Environmental Politics and Values," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 993-1024.
    27. Aswani, Jitendra & Raghunandan, Aneesh & Rajgopal, Shivaram, 2024. "Are carbon emissions associated with stock returns?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118364, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    28. Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Fitzgibbons, Shaun & Pomorski, Lukasz, 2021. "Responsible investing: The ESG-efficient frontier," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 572-597.
    29. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    30. Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2019. "Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 108-129.
    31. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    32. Robert S. Pindyck & Neng Wang, 2013. "The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 306-339, November.
    33. Olivier David Zerbib, 2022. "A Sustainable Capital Asset Pricing Model (S-CAPM): Evidence from Environmental Integration and Sin Stock Exclusion [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1345-1388.
    34. Frances C. Moore & Katherine Lacasse & Katharine J. Mach & Yoon Ah Shin & Louis J. Gross & Brian Beckage, 2022. "Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system," Nature, Nature, vol. 603(7899), pages 103-111, March.
    35. Duineveld, Sijmen & Hambel, Christoph & Lessmann, Kai, 2025. "Green investors and the return on capital in general equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    36. Bovenberg, A Lans & Smulders, Sjak A, 1996. "Transitional Impacts of Environmental Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(4), pages 861-893, November.
    37. Karydas, Christos & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Climate change financial risks: Implications for asset pricing and interest rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    38. Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, 2015. "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 187-190, January.
    39. Po‐Hsuan Hsu & Kai Li & Chi‐Yang Tsou, 2023. "The Pollution Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1343-1392, June.
    40. Aswani, Jitendra & Raghunandan, Aneesh & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2024. "Are carbon emissions associated with StockReturns? - Reply," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121632, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    41. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    42. Duffie, Darrel & Lions, Pierre-Louis, 1992. "PDE solutions of stochastic differential utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 577-606.
    43. Frederick van der Ploeg & Aart de Zeeuw, 2018. "Climate Tipping and Economic Growth: Precautionary Capital and the Price of Carbon," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1577-1617.
    44. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    45. Longstaff, Francis A. & Piazzesi, Monika, 2004. "Corporate earnings and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 401-421, December.
    46. Michael Barnett, 2024. "A Run on Fossil Fuel? Climate Change and Transition Risk," Papers 2410.00902, arXiv.org.
    47. Ivan T Ivanov & Mathias S Kruttli & Sumudu W Watugala, 2024. "Banking on Carbon: Corporate Lending and Cap-and-Trade Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(5), pages 1640-1684.
    48. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. Gregory, Richard P., 2024. "Risk premiums from temperature trends," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 505-525.
    50. Jitendra Aswani & Aneesh Raghunandan & Shiva Rajgopal, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns?—Reply," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 111-115.
    51. Jitendra Aswani & Aneesh Raghunandan & Shiva Rajgopal, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 75-106.
    52. Patrick Bolton & Marcin Kacperczyk, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns? Comment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 107-109.
    53. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-436.
    54. Faccini, Renato & Matin, Rastin & Skiadopoulos, George, 2023. "Dissecting climate risks: Are they reflected in stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    55. Hambel, Christoph & Kraft, Holger & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2021. "Optimal carbon abatement in a stochastic equilibrium model with climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    56. Hong, Harrison & Li, Frank Weikai & Xu, Jiangmin, 2019. "Climate risks and market efficiency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 265-281.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    2. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Karydas, Christos & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Climate change financial risks: Implications for asset pricing and interest rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117609, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    6. Duineveld, Sijmen & Hambel, Christoph & Lessmann, Kai, 2025. "Green investors and the return on capital in general equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    7. Rick Van der Ploeg & Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft, 2020. "Asset Pricing and Decarbonization: Diversification versus Climate Action," Economics Series Working Papers 901, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Xu Lin & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Social Cost of Carbon under Climate Volatility Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-032/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Hambel, Christoph & van der Sanden, Floor, 2025. "Reevaluating the carbon premium: Evidence of green outperformance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Stan Olijslagers & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2019. "Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-030/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Wong, Jin Boon & Zhang, Qin, 2025. "The impact of political risks on carbon emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    12. Rick van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8441, CESifo.
    13. Hambel, Christoph & Kraft, Holger & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2021. "The social cost of carbon in a non-cooperative world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Thomas Douenne, 2020. "Disaster Risks, Disaster Strikes, and Economic Growth: the Role of Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 251-272, October.
    15. Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/327, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    16. Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 27066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Benchora, Inessa & Leroy, Aurélien & Raffestin, Louis, 2025. "Is monetary policy transmission green?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Allahdadi, Mohammad R. & Fretheim, Torun & Vindedal, Kjetil, 2024. "Value of climate change news: A textual analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Michael Barnett, 2024. "A Run on Fossil Fuel? Climate Change and Transition Risk," Papers 2410.00902, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0304393225000510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.