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Climate Change Concerns and the Performance of Green vs. Brown Stocks

Author

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  • David Ardia

    (Groupe d’Études et de Recherche en Analyse des Décisions (GERAD) & Department of Decision Sciences, École des Hautes Études Commerciales (HEC) Montréal, Montréal, Québec H3T 2A7, Canada)

  • Keven Bluteau

    (Department of Finance, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec J1K 2R1, Canada)

  • Kris Boudt

    (Solvay Business School, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Brussels, Belgium; Department of Economics, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium; School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Koen Inghelbrecht

    (Department of Economics, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium)

Abstract

We empirically test the prediction of Pástor et al. (2021) that green firms outperform brown firms when concerns about climate change increase unexpectedly, using data for S&P 500 companies from January 2010 to June 2018. To capture unexpected increases in climate change concerns, we construct a daily Media Climate Change Concerns index using news about climate change published by major U.S. newspapers and newswires. We find that on days with an unexpected increase in climate change concerns, the green firms’ stock prices tend to increase, whereas brown firms’ prices decrease. Furthermore, using topic modeling, we conclude that this effect holds for concerns about both transition and physical climate change risk. Finally, we decompose returns into cash flow and discount rate news components and find that an unexpected increase in climate change concerns is associated with an increase (decrease) in the discount rate of brown (green) firms.

Suggested Citation

  • David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Kris Boudt & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2023. "Climate Change Concerns and the Performance of Green vs. Brown Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7607-7632, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:69:y:2023:i:12:p:7607-7632
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4636
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Schuster & Julian Krüger & Rainer Lueg, 2025. "Physical climate risk: Stock price reactions to the historically most extreme European and United States heat waves since 1979," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Zhang, Yaojie & Zhao, Xinyi & Zhang, Zhikai, 2025. "Financial regulatory policy uncertainty: An informative predictor for financial industry stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    3. Lai, Fujun & Cheng, Xianli & Li, An & Xiong, Deping & Li, Yunzhong, 2025. "Does flood risk affect the implied cost of equity capital?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani & Filippo Natoli, 2025. "The macroeconomic effects of a greener technology mix," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1482, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Allahdadi, Mohammad R. & Fretheim, Torun & Vindedal, Kjetil, 2024. "Value of climate change news: A textual analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. El Ouadghiri, Imane & Kaabia, Olfa & Peillex, Jonathan & Platania, Federico & Toscano Hernandez, Celina, 2025. "Attention to biodiversity and stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Zhenyu Zhu & Yixiang Tian & Xiaoying Zhao & Huiling Huang, 2025. "Green Washing, Green Bond Issuance, and the Pricing of Carbon Risk: Evidence from A-Share Listed Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-23, May.
    9. Vu, Thanh Nam, 2025. "ESG performance and sustainability concerns exposure," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Chen, Wang & Chen, Zhu & Luo, Qin, 2025. "Predicting volatility in China's clean energy sector: Advantages of the carbon transition risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    12. Campiglio, Emanuele & De Angelis, Luca & Neri, Paolo & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "From climate chat to climate shock: non‐linear impacts of transition risk in energy CDS markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127807, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Wong, Jin Boon & Zhang, Qin, 2025. "The impact of political risks on carbon emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Giovanni Angelini & Maria Elena Bontempi & Luca De Angelis & Paolo Neri & Marco Maria Sorge, 2025. "Shocking concerns: public perception about climate change and the macroeconomy," Papers 2505.04669, arXiv.org.
    15. Meyer, Julia, 2024. "Do sustainably managed pension savings foster sustainable investments? Evidence from a field experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    16. Paul P. Momtaz & Isabel M. Parra, 2025. "Is sustainable entrepreneurship profitable? ESG disclosure and the financial performance of SMEs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1535-1564, April.
    17. Mubeen Abdur Rehman & Saeed Ahmad Sabir & Muhammad Zahid Javed & Haider Mahmood, 2024. "The Connectedness Knowledge from Investors’ Sentiments, Financial Crises, and Trade Policy: An Economic Perspective," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(4), pages 20038-20062, December.
    18. Li, Chuandong & Sun, Qingyu & Ma, Xiaowei, 2024. "Promotion or inhibition? Understanding the impact of public environmental concerns on energy transition in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    19. Emanuele Campiglio & Luca De Angelis & Paolo Neri & Ginevra Scalisi, 2025. "From Climate Chat to Climate Shock: Non‐Linear Impacts of Transition Risk in Energy CDS Markets," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), April.
    20. Jiale He, 2025. "The impact of energy transition policies on urban green innovation: evidence from the new energy demonstration cities in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-24, June.
    21. Li, Wanli & Luo, Dan & Cheng, Teng-Yuan, 2025. "Strategy choices in strategic risk-taking: Does climate risk matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

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