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Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model

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  • Ikefuji, M.
  • Laeven, R.J.A.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Magnus, J.R.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Muris, C.H.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

We analyze a stochastic dynamic finite-horizon economic model with climate change, in which the social planner faces uncertainty about future climate change and its economic damages. Our model (SDICE*) incorporates, possibly heavy-tailed, stochasticity in Nordhaus’ deterministic DICE model. We develop a regression-based numerical method for solving a general class of dynamic finite-horizon economy–climate models with potentially heavy-tailed uncertainty and general utility functions. We then apply this method to SDICE* and examine the effects of light- and heavy-tailed uncertainty. The results indicate that the effects can be substantial, depending on the nature and extent of the uncertainty and the social planner’s preferences.
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  • Ikefuji, M. & Laeven, R.J.A. & Magnus, J.R. & Muris, C.H.M., 2010. "Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model," Discussion Paper 2010-122, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:52cbee73-e1dc-4ed3-8ec9-61bd0090c3da
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    4. Chanel, Olivier & Chichilnisky, Graciela, 2013. "Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 198-205.
    5. De Bruin, Kelly & Kiran Krishnamurthy, Chandra, 2021. "Optimal Climate Policy with Fat-tailed Uncertainty: What the Models Can Tell Us," Papers WP697, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Ikefuji, M. & Laeven, R.J.A. & Magnus, J.R. & Muris, C.H.M., 2010. "Burr Utility," Discussion Paper 2010-81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
      • Ikefuji, M. & Laeven, R.J.A. & Magnus, J.R. & Muris, C.H.M., 2010. "Burr Utility," Other publications TiSEM fddee215-edea-4800-ba72-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Lucas Bretschger & Alexandra Vinogradova, 2014. "Growth and Mitigation Policies with Uncertain Climate Damage," CEEES Paper Series CE3S-02/14, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Bretschger, Lucas & Suphaphiphat, Nujin, 2014. "Effective climate policies in a dynamic North–South model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 59-77.
    9. Christian Fries & Lennart Quante, 2023. "Intergenerational Equity in Models of Climate Change Mitigation: Stochastic Interest Rates introduce Adverse Effects, but (Non-linear) Funding Costs can Improve Intergenerational Equity," Papers 2309.16186, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    10. Stanca Lorenzo, 2023. "Robust Bayesian Choice," Working papers 079, Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    11. Lorenzo Stanca, 2023. "Robust Bayesian Choice," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 690 JEL Classification: C, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    12. Thijs Dekker & Rob Dellink & Janina Ketterer, 2013. "The Fatter the Tail, the Fatter the Climate Agreement - Simulating the Influence of Fat Tails in Climate Change Damages on the Success of International Climate Negotiations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4059, CESifo.
    13. David Comerford, 2013. "A balance of questions: what can we ask of climate change economics?," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 216, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    14. Christian P. Fries & Lennart Quante, 2023. "Intergenerational Equitable Climate Change Mitigation: Negative Effects of Stochastic Interest Rates; Positive Effects of Financing," Papers 2312.07614, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    15. Grechuk, Bogdan & Zabarankin, Michael, 2014. "Risk averse decision making under catastrophic risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(1), pages 166-176.
    16. Buchholz, Wolfgang & Schymura, Michael, 2012. "Expected utility theory and the tyranny of catastrophic risks," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-239.
    17. Hwang, In Chang & Tol, Richard S.J. & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2016. "Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 25-35.
    18. In Chang Hwang & Richard S.J. Tol & Marjan W. Hofkes, 2013. "Tail-effect and the Role of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control," Working Paper Series 6613, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    19. Masako Ikefuji & Roger Laeven & Jan Magnus & Chris Muris, 2013. "Pareto utility," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(1), pages 43-57, July.
    20. Rob Dellink & Thijs Dekker & Janina Ketterer, 2013. "The Fatter the Tail, the Fatter the Climate Agreement," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(2), pages 277-305, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economy-climate models; Catastrophe; Expected utility; Heavy tails; Power utility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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