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Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas S. Lontzek

    (University of Zurich)

  • Yongyang Cai

    (Hoover Institution, Stanford University
    Becker Friedman Institute, University of Chicago)

  • Kenneth L. Judd

    (Hoover Institution, Stanford University
    National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Timothy M. Lenton

    (Earth System Science Group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter)

Abstract

Analysis of the uncertainty associated with the timing of climate tipping points suggests that carbon taxes need to be increased by a minimum of 50%. If considering a rapid, high-impact tipping event, these taxes should be more than 200% higher. This implies that the discount rate to delay stochastic tipping points is much lower than that for deterministic climate damages.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas S. Lontzek & Yongyang Cai & Kenneth L. Judd & Timothy M. Lenton, 2015. "Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 441-444, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate2570
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2570
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