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Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model

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  • Ikefuji, M.
  • Laeven, R.J.A.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Magnus, J.R.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Muris, C.H.M.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

We analyze a stochastic dynamic finite-horizon economic model with climate change, in which the social planner faces uncertainty about future climate change and its economic damages. Our model (SDICE*) incorporates, possibly heavy-tailed, stochasticity in Nordhaus’ deterministic DICE model. We develop a regression-based numerical method for solving a general class of dynamic finite-horizon economy–climate models with potentially heavy-tailed uncertainty and general utility functions. We then apply this method to SDICE* and examine the effects of light- and heavy-tailed uncertainty. The results indicate that the effects can be substantial, depending on the nature and extent of the uncertainty and the social planner’s preferences.
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  • Ikefuji, M. & Laeven, R.J.A. & Magnus, J.R. & Muris, C.H.M., 2010. "Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model," Other publications TiSEM 52cbee73-e1dc-4ed3-8ec9-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:52cbee73-e1dc-4ed3-8ec9-61bd0090c3da
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      • Ikefuji, M. & Laeven, R.J.A. & Magnus, J.R. & Muris, C.H.M., 2010. "Burr Utility," Other publications TiSEM fddee215-edea-4800-ba72-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    10. Christian Fries & Lennart Quante, 2023. "Intergenerational Equity in Models of Climate Change Mitigation: Stochastic Interest Rates introduce Adverse Effects, but (Non-linear) Funding Costs can Improve Intergenerational Equity," Papers 2309.16186, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
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    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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