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Climate Change and Growth Risks

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  • Ravi Bansal
  • Marcelo Ochoa
  • Dana Kiku

Abstract

To study the welfare implications of rising temperature we propose a temperature-augmented long-run risks model that accounts for the interaction between temperature, economic growth and risk. The model simultaneously matches the projected temperature path, the observed consumption growth dynamics, discount rates provided by the risk-free rate and equity market returns, and the negative elasticity of equity prices to temperature risks documented in the data. We use the calibrated model to quantify the social cost of carbon (SCC) and to frame the optimal climate policy. We show that a preference for early resolution of uncertainty and long-run impact of temperature on growth imply a significant SCC and motivate early actions to abate global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Bansal & Marcelo Ochoa & Dana Kiku, 2016. "Climate Change and Growth Risks," NBER Working Papers 23009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Dietz, Simon & Gollier, Christian & Kessler, Louise, 2018. "The climate beta," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 258-274.
    3. Rick Van der Ploeg & Ton S. Van den Bremer, 2018. "The Risk-Adjusted Carbon Price," OxCarre Working Papers 203, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Huynh, Thanh D. & Nguyen, Thu Ha & Truong, Cameron, 2020. "Climate risk: The price of drought," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Schultes, Anselm & Piontek, Franziska & Soergel, Bjoern & Rogelj, Joeri & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Luderer, Gunnar, 2020. "Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts," MPRA Paper 103655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2019. "The agnostic's response to climate deniers: Price carbon!," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 70-84.
    7. Thomas Douenne, 2020. "Disaster Risks, Disaster Strikes, and Economic Growth: the Role of Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 251-272, October.
    8. Charles Fries & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Weather Shocks and Climate Change," 2018 Meeting Papers 1159, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Harrison Hong & Frank Weikai Li & Jiangmin Xu, 2016. "Climate Risks and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 22890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. García-León, David, 2015. "Weather and Income: Lessons from the Main European Regions," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 202979, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    11. Steven D Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2020. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 1-60.
    12. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2018. "Pricing Carbon Under Economic and Climactic Risks: Leading-Order Results from Asymptotic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 12642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian, 2019. "Sustainable Investing in Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 14171, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Christopher J. Amante & Jacob Dice & David Rodziewicz & Eugene Wahl, 2020. "Housing Market Value Impairment from Future Sea-level Rise Inundation," Research Working Paper RWP 20-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    15. Amir Yaron & Steffen Hitzemann, 2017. "Welfare Costs of Oil Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1381, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Rick Van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2018. "Climate Policy and Stranded Carbon Assets: A Financial Perspective," OxCarre Working Papers 206, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Karp, Larry & Rezai, Armon, 2017. "Asset prices and climate policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6fx579fp, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    18. Huang, Bihong & Punzi, Maria Teresa & Wu, Yu, 2019. "Do Banks Price Environmental Risk? Evidence from a Quasi Natural Experiment in the People’s Republic of China," ADBI Working Papers 974, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    19. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Marcelo Ochoa, 2016. "Price of Long-Run Temperature Shifts in Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 22529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ravi Jagannathan & Ashwin Ravikumar & Marco Sammon, 2017. "Environmental, Social, and Governance Criteria: Why Investors are Paying Attention," NBER Working Papers 24063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Lööf, Hans & Martinsson, Gustav & Mohammadi, Ali, 2017. "Finance and Innovative Investment in Environmental Technology: The Case of Sweden," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 445, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    22. Steven D. Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2018. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Marcelo Ochoa & Dana Kiku & Ravi Bansal, 2016. "What Do Capital Markets Tell Us About Climate Change?," 2016 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. V. V. Chari, 2018. "The Role of Uncertainty and Risk in Climate Change Economics," Staff Report 576, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    25. Hong, Harrison & Li, Frank Weikai & Xu, Jiangmin, 2019. "Climate risks and market efficiency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 265-281.

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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