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The social cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 model

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  • Hope, Chris W.

Abstract

A new version of the PAGE integrated assessment model, PAGE09, is introduced. The most important scientific, impact, emission and adaptation inputs in the latest default version of the model, PAGE09 v1.7 are described. The scientific and economic impact results are presented for a business as usual (BAU) emissions scenario, and for a low emissions scenario which aims to have a 50% chance of keeping the rise in global mean temperatures below 2 degC. Today's mean social cost of CO2 is about $100 per tonne of CO2 in the BAU scenario, and about $50 per tonne in the low emissions scenario. The major influences on the SCCO2 are found to be the transient climate response, the pure time preference rate, the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, the feedback response time of the earth and the weight on non-economic impacts. Less than 10% of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in annex 1 from annex 1 emissions, while over 45% comes from impacts in the rest of the world (RoW) from RoW emissions. About one third of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in the RoW caused by emissions in annex 1, while just over 10% comes from impacts in annex 1 caused by emissions in the RoW.

Suggested Citation

  • Hope, Chris W., 2011. "The social cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 model," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ackerman, Frank & Stanton, Elizabeth A. & Hope, Chris & Alberth, Stephane, 2009. "Did the Stern Review underestimate US and global climate damages?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2717-2721, July.
    2. Hope, Chris, 2008. "Discount rates, equity weights and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1011-1019, May.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Jason Lowe & Elke Stehfest & Laila Gohar & Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Rachel Warren & Malte Meinshausen & Gian-Kasper Plattner, 2011. "How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 255-285, January.
    4. Kelly de Bruin & Rob Dellink & Shardul Agrawala, 2009. "Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change: Integrated Assessment Modelling of Adaptation Costs and Benefits," OECD Environment Working Papers 6, OECD Publishing.
    5. Anthoff, David & Hepburn, Cameron & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 836-849, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth Kopits & Alex L. Marten & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Moving Forward with Incorporating "Catastrophic" Climate Change into Policy Analysis," NCEE Working Paper Series 201301, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2013.
    2. Richard S. J. Tol, 2015. "Economic impacts of climate change," Working Paper Series 7515, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    3. repec:eee:appene:v:205:y:2017:i:c:p:428-439 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:oup:renvpo:v:11:y:2017:i:1:p:115-137. is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Howard, Peter & Sterner, Thomas, 2014. "Loaded DICE: Refining the Meta-analysis Approach to Calibrating Climate Damage Functions," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169952, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
    7. William Nordhaus, 2014. "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 000.
    8. Chris Hope, 2013. "How high should climate change taxes be?," Chapters,in: Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 17, pages 403-414 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Weyant John, 2014. "Integrated assessment of climate change: state of the literature," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 377-409, December.
    10. Tamaki, Tetsuya & Nozawa, Wataru & Managi, Shunsuke, 2017. "Evaluation of the ocean ecosystem: climate change modelling with backstop technology," MPRA Paper 80549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pablo Salas, 2013. "Literature Review of Energy-Economics Models, Regarding Technological Change and Uncertainty," 4CMR Working Paper Series 003, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
    12. Parkinson, Aidan & Guthrie, Peter, 2014. "Evaluating the energy performance of buildings within a value at risk framework with demonstration on UK offices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 40-55.
    13. Anthony Bonen & Willi Semmler & Stephan Klasen, 2014. "Economic Damages from Climate Change: A Review of Modeling Approaches," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2014-3, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    14. Feijoo, Felipe & Das, Tapas K., 2014. "Design of Pareto optimal CO2 cap-and-trade policies for deregulated electricity networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 371-383.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; integrated assessment modelling; uncertainty; social cost;

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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