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The Uncertainty about the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change


  • Tol, Richard S. J.


This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3ºC, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3ºC most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7ºC may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "The Uncertainty about the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change," Papers WP382, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp382

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Pycroft & Juan Carlos Ciscar & Robert Nicholls, 2012. "Global Impacts of Sea-level Rise: An assessment with the GEM-E3 model," EcoMod2012 4054, EcoMod.

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    Climate change/uncertainty/impacts/Social cost of carbon/cost;

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