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Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties

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  • Ha Nguyen

Abstract

Using quarterly temperature and employment data between 1990 and 2021, this paper uncovers nuanced evidence on the impact of seasonal temperature within US counties: higher winter temperature increases private sector employment growth while higher summer temperature decreases it. The impacts of higher temperature in mild seasons, fall and spring, are statistically insignificant. Moreover, the negative impact of higher summer temperature persists while the positive impact of higher temperature in the winter is more short-lived. The negative effects of a hotter summer are pervasive and persistent in many sectors: most significantly in “Construction” and “Leisure and Hospitality” but also in “Trade, Transport, and Utilities” and “Financial Activities.” In contrast, the positive effects of a warmer winter are less pervasive. The employment effect of a hotter summer has been more severe in recent decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Ha Nguyen, 2023. "Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties," IMF Working Papers 2023/142, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/142
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Mengjie & Bai, Qianwen & Du, Weijian, 2025. "The world is different because of you: Global warming, technological progress and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 202-211.
    2. SooJin Jo & Juntae Kim & Myungkyu Shim, 2025. "Extreme Temperature Shocks And Labor Market Heterogeneity: Regional Evidence From Korea," Working papers 2025rwp-242, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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