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Beyond the annual averages: Impact of seasonal temperature on employment growth in US counties

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  • Nguyen, Ha Minh

Abstract

Using quarterly temperature and employment data between 1990 and 2021, this paper uncovers nuanced evidence on the impact of seasonal temperature within US counties: higher winter temperature increases private sector employment growth while higher summer temperature decreases it. The impacts of higher temperature in milder seasons, fall and spring, are statistically insignificant. Moreover, the negative impact of higher summer temperature persists while the positive impact of higher temperature in the winter is more short-lived. The negative effects of a hotter summer are pervasive and persistent in many sectors: most significantly in “Construction” and “Leisure and Hospitality” but also in “Trade, Transport, and Utilities” and “Financial Activities”. In contrast, the positive effects of a warmer winter are less pervasive. The employment effect of a hotter summer has been more severe in recent decades.

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  • Nguyen, Ha Minh, 2024. "Beyond the annual averages: Impact of seasonal temperature on employment growth in US counties," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:125:y:2024:i:c:s0095069624000202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102946
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ha Minh Nguyen & Samuel Pienknagura, 2025. "Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(12), pages 3513-3545, December.
    4. Li, Mengjie & Bai, Qianwen & Du, Weijian, 2025. "The world is different because of you: Global warming, technological progress and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 202-211.
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    6. Valerio Intraligi & Marco Biagetti, 2026. "Occupational Heat Stress and Employment Dynamics in Italy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 89(2), pages 1-31, February.
    7. Yu Dong & Xuehong Zhu & Qiong Xu, 2026. "Risk or opportunity: the impact of high-temperature shocks on necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 1207-1231, March.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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