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Growth at Risk From Climate Change

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Abstract

How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more likely using quantile regressions linking growth to temperature. The effects of temperature on downside risks to economic growth are large and robust across specifications. These results suggest the growth at risk from climate change is large—climate change may make economic contractions more likely and severe and thereby significantly impact economic and financial stability and welfare.

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  • Michael T. Kiley, 2021. "Growth at Risk From Climate Change," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-54
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.054
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    2. Emanuel Moench & Robin Schaal, 2025. "The impact of extreme weather events on the term structure of sovereign debt," Working Papers 11088, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. Nabil Daher, 2026. "Is growth at risk from natural disasters? Evidence from quantile local projections," Post-Print hal-05466345, HAL.
    4. Fernando Rios-Avila & Andrey Ramos & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza & Leonardo Siles, 2026. "Estimation and Inference in Quantile Regressions with Multiple Fixed Effects," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper2615, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    5. Naveen Kumar & Dibyendu Maiti, 2025. "Distributional impacts of global warming on wealth inequality: evidence from global panel of regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 3889-3933, December.
    6. Kumar, Naveen & Maiti, Dibyendu, 2025. "Climate change, state capacity and uneven growth: A disaggregated analysis of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
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    8. Leventis, Flora & Palaios, Panagiotis, 2024. "Fresh evidence from temperature effects on growth and economic policy uncertainty: A panel quantile approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    9. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2025. "Climate growth at risk in the global south," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. René Augusto Marín-Leyva & América I. Zamora-Torres & Carlos Francisco Ortiz-Paniagua, 2022. "Economía, energía y calidad ambiental en APEC, 1990-2018," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(4), pages 1-19, Octubre -.
    11. Ren, Xianling & Qiao, Jinbao & Ji, Jianyue, 2025. "Population aging and intensified economic downside risk: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Belloc, Ignacio, 2024. "Family house prices in the US: Convergence clubs by county (1975-2022)," MPRA Paper 121487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Richard S.J. Tol, 2025. "Climate Determinism Reborn," Working Paper Series 0725, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.

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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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