IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000566/021166.html

Climate Growth at Risk in the Global South

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Giraldo

    (Latin American Reserve Fund)

  • Iader Giraldo

    (Latin American Reserve Fund)

  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez

    (City University of New York – Lehman College)

  • Jorge M. Uribe

    (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya)

Abstract

We examine the effect of climate uncertainty shocks on the growth rate distribution of Latin American and Caribbean countries from 1970 to 2022. We provide novel indicators for second-moment shocks (volatility), third-moment shocks (skewness), and fourth-moment shocks (kurtosis) based on daily temperatures at the country level. Our panel quantile models with fixed effects reveal a significant negative impact of time-varying skewness on the lower quantiles of the growth distribution during negative growth periods. Conversely, volatility and kurtosis do not significantly affect growth rates. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating time-varying climate skewness in economic climate models and highlight the impacts of climate uncertainty shocks across different growth quantiles beyond the traditional effects of the average change in temperature.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Giraldo & Iader Giraldo & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Climate Growth at Risk in the Global South," Documentos de trabajo 21166, FLAR.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000566:021166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://flar.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Paper_Climate-Growth-at-Risk-in-the-Global-South.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    3. Katrina Jessoe & Dale T. Manning & J. Edward Taylor, 2018. "Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 230-261.
    4. Ahmadi, Maryam & Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2025. "Climate shocks, economic activity and cross-country spillovers: Evidence from a new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Meddahi, Nour, 2011. "Realized volatility forecasting and market microstructure noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 220-234, January.
    7. Maximilian Kotz & Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz, 2024. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: The economic commitment of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 628(8008), pages 551-557, April.
    8. Alan S. Manne & Richard G. Richels, 1991. "Global CO2 Emission Reductions -the Impacts of Rising Energy Costs," The Energy Journal, , vol. 12(1), pages 87-108, January.
    9. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2022. "Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 207-242, April.
    10. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
    11. William D. Nordhaus & Andrew Moffat, 2017. "A Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods, and a Statistical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. E. Somanathan & Rohini Somanathan & Anant Sudarshan & Meenu Tewari, 2021. "The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1797-1827.
    13. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    14. Damania, R. & Desbureaux, S. & Zaveri, E., 2020. "Does rainfall matter for economic growth? Evidence from global sub-national data (1990–2014)," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    15. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    16. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Growth at risk from climate change," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1134-1151, July.
    17. Tobias Adrian & Federico Grinberg & Nellie Liang & Sheheryar Malik & Jie Yu, 2022. "The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 283-323, July.
    18. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 40-76.
    19. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    20. Rob Dellink & Elisa Lanzi & Jean Chateau, 2019. "The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(2), pages 309-363, February.
    21. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    22. Samuel Fankhauser, 1994. "The Social Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Expected Value Approach," The Energy Journal, , vol. 15(2), pages 157-184, April.
    23. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    24. Jun’ya Takakura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Naota Hanasaki & Tomoko Hasegawa & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Yasushi Honda & Toshichika Iizumi & Naoko Kumano & Chan Park & Zhihong Shen & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Makoto, 2019. "Publisher Correction: Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 894-894, November.
    25. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
    26. repec:aen:journl:1991v12-01-a06 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Mosquera-López, Stephania & Uribe, Jorge M. & Joaqui-Barandica, Orlando, 2024. "Weather conditions, climate change, and the price of electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    28. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    29. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
    30. Bruno Conte & Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2021. "Local sectoral specialization in a warming world," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 493-530.
    31. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1993. "Reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of different instruments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 491-520.
    32. Richard S. J. Tol, 2014. "Correction and Update: The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 221-226, Spring.
    33. Maximilian Kotz & Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz, 2022. "The effect of rainfall changes on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7892), pages 223-227, January.
    34. Maximilian Kotz & Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz, 2024. "Author Correction: The economic commitment of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 631(8020), pages 9-9, July.
    35. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
    36. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    37. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26.
    38. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Marotta, Fulvia, 2024. "Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    39. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    40. Katrina Jessoe & Dale T. Manning & J. Edward Taylor, 2018. "Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 230-261, February.
    41. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    42. repec:aen:journl:1994v15-02-a09 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    44. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2014. "Empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 555-561.
    45. Burke, Marshall & Hsiang, Solomon M & Miguel, Edward, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3g72r0zv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    46. José-Luis Cruz & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2024. "The Economic Geography of Global Warming," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 899-939.
    47. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    48. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    49. Tamma Carleton & Esther Duflo & Kelsey Jack & Guglielmo Zappalà, 2024. "Adaptation to Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 33264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Jun’ya Takakura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Naota Hanasaki & Tomoko Hasegawa & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Yasushi Honda & Toshichika Iizumi & Naoko Kumano & Chan Park & Zhihong Shen & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Makoto, 2019. "Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(10), pages 737-741, October.
    51. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39, October.
    52. Acevedo, Sebastian & Mrkaic, Mico & Novta, Natalija & Pugacheva, Evgenia & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    53. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas-Duque, Diego Fernando, 2017. "Nonlinear empirical pricing in electricity markets using fundamental weather factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 594-605.
    54. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C. & Sexton, Steven E., 2021. "The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    2. Kumar, Naveen & Maiti, Dibyendu, 2025. "Climate change, state capacity and uneven growth: A disaggregated analysis of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Harding, Anthony & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Quaas, Martin & Rickels, Wilfried & Smulders, Sjak, 2025. "Distribution of climate damages in convergence-consistent growth projections," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Tarsia, Romano, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of weather shocks on firm economic performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124251, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Richard S.J. Tol, 2025. "Climate Determinism Reborn," Working Paper Series 0725, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Jinchi Dong & Richard S. J. Tol & Jinnan Wang, 2025. "The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data," Papers 2505.17946, arXiv.org.
    7. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Climate change and economic prosperity: Evidence from a flexible damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Ahmadi, Maryam & Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2025. "Climate shocks, economic activity and cross-country spillovers: Evidence from a new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 136, pages 1-18.
    10. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    11. Cascarano, Michele & Natoli, Filippo & Petrella, Andrea, 2025. "Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    12. Kumar, Naveen, 2025. "Beyond GDP: Quantifying Heterogeneous Impact of Climate Change on Well-being and Social Progress," SocArXiv j5kyc_v1, Center for Open Science.
    13. Lianxiao Yao & Minghui Jin, 2025. "The uneven impact of temperature on the macroeconomy: a perspective on total factor productivity," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1-35, August.
    14. Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Stephane Hallegatte & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2024. "Does global warming worsen poverty and inequality? An updated review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 1873-1905, December.
    15. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Kopits, Elizabeth & Kraynak, Daniel & Parthum, Bryan & Rennels, Lisa & Smith, David & Spink, Elizabeth & Griffiths, Charles & Perla, Joseph & Burns, Nshan & Howerton, Michael, 2025. "Economic Damages from Climate Change to U.S. Populations: Integrating Evidence from Recent Studies," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 368258, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    17. Adrien Bilal & James H. Stock, 2025. "A Guide to Macroeconomics and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 33567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    19. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    20. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000566:021166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fondo Latino Americano de Reservas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://flar.com/publicaciones/#trabajo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.