IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000566/021166.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Growth at Risk in the Global South

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Giraldo

    (Latin American Reserve Fund)

  • Iader Giraldo

    (Latin American Reserve Fund)

  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez

    (City University of New York – Lehman College)

  • Jorge M. Uribe

    (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya)

Abstract

We examine the effect of climate uncertainty shocks on the growth rate distribution of Latin American and Caribbean countries from 1970 to 2022. We provide novel indicators for second-moment shocks (volatility), third-moment shocks (skewness), and fourth-moment shocks (kurtosis) based on daily temperatures at the country level. Our panel quantile models with fixed effects reveal a significant negative impact of time-varying skewness on the lower quantiles of the growth distribution during negative growth periods. Conversely, volatility and kurtosis do not significantly affect growth rates. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating time-varying climate skewness in economic climate models and highlight the impacts of climate uncertainty shocks across different growth quantiles beyond the traditional effects of the average change in temperature.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Giraldo & Iader Giraldo & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Climate Growth at Risk in the Global South," Documentos de trabajo 21166, FLAR.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000566:021166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://flar.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Paper_Climate-Growth-at-Risk-in-the-Global-South.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maximilian Kotz & Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz, 2024. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: The economic commitment of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 628(8008), pages 551-557, April.
    2. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Growth at risk from climate change," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1134-1151, July.
    3. Richard S. J. Tol, 2014. "Correction and Update: The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 221-226, Spring.
    4. Alan S. Manne & Richard G. Richels, 1991. "Global CO2 Emission Reductions -the Impacts of Rising Energy Costs," The Energy Journal, , vol. 12(1), pages 87-108, January.
    5. Maximilian Kotz & Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz, 2022. "The effect of rainfall changes on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7892), pages 223-227, January.
    6. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
    7. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    8. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    10. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C. & Sexton, Steven E., 2021. "The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1993. "Reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of different instruments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 491-520.
    12. William D. Nordhaus & Andrew Moffat, 2017. "A Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods, and a Statistical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jun’ya Takakura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Naota Hanasaki & Tomoko Hasegawa & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Yasushi Honda & Toshichika Iizumi & Naoko Kumano & Chan Park & Zhihong Shen & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Makoto, 2019. "Publisher Correction: Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 894-894, November.
    14. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
    15. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    16. Jun’ya Takakura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Naota Hanasaki & Tomoko Hasegawa & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Yasushi Honda & Toshichika Iizumi & Naoko Kumano & Chan Park & Zhihong Shen & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Makoto, 2019. "Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(10), pages 737-741, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    2. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 136, pages 1-18.
    3. Harding, Anthony & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Quaas, Martin & Rickels, Wilfried & Smulders, Sjak, 2025. "Distribution of climate damages in convergence-consistent growth projections," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Damette, Olivier & Mathonnat, Clément & Thavard, Julien, 2024. "Climate and sovereign risk: The Latin American experience with strong ENSO events," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    6. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Lianxiao Yao & Minghui Jin, 2025. "The uneven impact of temperature on the macroeconomy: a perspective on total factor productivity," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1-35, August.
    8. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Lomborg, Bjorn, 2020. "Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    11. Jinchi Dong & Richard S. J. Tol & Jinnan Wang, 2025. "The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data," Papers 2505.17946, arXiv.org.
    12. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    13. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Climate change and economic prosperity: Evidence from a flexible damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Miia Chabot & Jean-Louis Bertrand, 2025. "Assessing sector vulnerabilities to physical climate risks: the case of France," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 1181-1214, August.
    15. Majid Khan & Abdul Rashid, 2022. "(A)symmetry effects of climate changes on economic growth: a panel data analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(4), pages 571-607, December.
    16. Pascal Polonik & Katharine Ricke & Jennifer Burney, 2025. "Estimating the impacts of climate change: reconciling disconnects between physical climate and statistical models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-23, February.
    17. Tarsia, Romano, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of weather shocks on firm economic performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124251, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Kumar, Naveen, 2025. "Beyond GDP: Quantifying Heterogeneous Impact of Climate Change on Well-being and Social Progress," SocArXiv j5kyc_v1, Center for Open Science.
    19. Nguyen, Ha Minh, 2024. "Beyond the annual averages: Impact of seasonal temperature on employment growth in US counties," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    20. Benmir, Ghassane & Mori, Aditya & Roman, Josselin & Tarsia, Romano, 2025. "Beneath the trees: the influence of natural capital on shadow price dynamics in a macroeconomic model with uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128516, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000566:021166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fondo Latino Americano de Reservas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://flar.com/publicaciones/#trabajo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.