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Severe weather and financial (in)stability

Author

Listed:
  • Foroni, Claudia
  • Gelain, Paolo
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Lorusso, Marco

Abstract

We quantify the effect of severe weather shocks on the US economy in an environment in which the economy can switch between periods of financial stability and financial instability, like the Great Recession. We estimate a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banks and severe weather events. We show that severe weather shocks: 1) have a negative impact on real and financial US variables, sizable only in periods of financial instability, but muted effects on nominal variables; 2) are never a relevant source of business cycles fluctuations; 3) transmit mainly via a deterioration in the quality of capital. JEL Classification: Q54, E32, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Foroni, Claudia & Gelain, Paolo & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Lorusso, Marco, 2026. "Severe weather and financial (in)stability," Working Paper Series 3211, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263211
    Note: 3243564
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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