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Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

Author

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  • RICCARDO COLACITO
  • BRIDGET HOFFMANN
  • TOAN PHAN

Abstract

We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1oF increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state‐level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one‐third over the next century.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Colacito & Bridget Hoffmann & Toan Phan, 2019. "Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 313-368, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:51:y:2019:i:2-3:p:313-368
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Donadelli, Michael & Grüning, Patrick & Jüppner, Marcus & Kizys, Renatas, 2017. "Global temperature, R&D expenditure, and growth," SAFE Working Paper Series 188, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    2. Matthew E. Kahn & Kamiar Mohaddes & Ryan N. C. Ng & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi & Jui-Chung Yang, 2019. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2019-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Donadelli, M. & Jüppner, M. & Riedel, M. & Schlag, C., 2017. "Temperature shocks and welfare costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 331-355.
    4. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:09:y:2018:i:04:n:s2010007818500124 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Michael Donadelli & Marcus Jüppner & Antonio Paradiso & Christian Schlag, 2019. "Temperature Volatility Risk," Working Papers 2019:05, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Feng, Bo & Partridge, Mark & Rembert, Mark, 2016. "The Perils of Modelling How Migration Responds to Climate Change," MPRA Paper 77059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zhao, Xiaobing, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Temperature Shocks on China and India using Subnational Data," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274435, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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