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Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

Author

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  • Colacito, Riccardo
  • Hoffmann, Bridget
  • Phan, Toan

Abstract

This paper documents that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide crosssection of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: an increase of 1°F in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0:15 to 0:25 percentage points. When these estimates are combined with projected increases in seasonal temperatures it is found that a reduction of U.S. economic growth by up to one third could occur over the next century.

Suggested Citation

  • Colacito, Riccardo & Hoffmann, Bridget & Phan, Toan, 2016. "Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7654, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:7654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Donadelli, Michael & Grüning, Patrick & Jüppner, Marcus & Kizys, Renatas, 2017. "Global temperature, R&D expenditure, and growth," SAFE Working Paper Series 188, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    2. Matthew E. Kahn & Kamiar Mohaddes & Ryan N. C. Ng & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi & Jui-Chung Yang, 2019. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2019-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Donadelli, M. & Jüppner, M. & Riedel, M. & Schlag, C., 2017. "Temperature shocks and welfare costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 331-355.
    4. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:09:y:2018:i:04:n:s2010007818500124 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Michael Donadelli & Marcus Jüppner & Antonio Paradiso & Christian Schlag, 2019. "Temperature Volatility Risk," Working Papers 2019:05, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Feng, Bo & Partridge, Mark & Rembert, Mark, 2016. "The Perils of Modelling How Migration Responds to Climate Change," MPRA Paper 77059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zhao, Xiaobing, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Temperature Shocks on China and India using Subnational Data," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274435, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor productivity; economic impact; economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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