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Central Bank Policy and the Concentration of Risk: Empirical Estimates

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  • Rey, Hélène
  • Coimbra, Nuno
  • Kim, Daisoon

Abstract

Before the 2008 crisis, the cross-sectional skewness of banks' leverage went up and macro risk concentrated in the balance sheets of large banks. Using a model of profit-maximizing banks with heterogeneous Value-at-Risk constraints, we extract the distribution of banks' risk-taking parameters from balance sheet data. The time series of these estimates allow us to understand systemic risk and its concentration in the banking sector over time. Counterfactual exercises show that (1) monetary policymakers confront the trade-off between stimulating the economy and financial stability, and (2) macroprudential policies can be effective tools to increase financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Rey, Hélène & Coimbra, Nuno & Kim, Daisoon, 2021. "Central Bank Policy and the Concentration of Risk: Empirical Estimates," CEPR Discussion Papers 16221, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16221
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    2. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Staff Reports 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Head, Allen & Kam, Timothy & Ng, Sam & Pan, Guangqian, 2025. "Money and imperfectly competitive credit," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Collard, Fabrice & Boissay, Frédéric & Galì, Jordi & Manea, Cristina, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises," TSE Working Papers 21-1277, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Apr 2023.
    5. Yiping Huang & Xiang Li & Han Qiu & Changhua Yu, 2023. "Big tech credit and monetary policy transmission: micro-level evidence from China," BIS Working Papers 1084, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Baolei Qi & Mohamed Marie & Ahmed S. Abdelwahed & Ibrahim N. Khatatbeh & Mohamed Omran & Abdallah A. S. Fayad, 2023. "Bank Risk Literature (1978–2022): A Bibliometric Analysis and Research Front Mapping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-27, March.
    7. Mariana, Christy Dwita & Raz, Arisyi F., 2025. "Central banks’ financial stability orientation and bank risk-taking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Cheng-Ben Wang & Qian Zhong, 2023. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: International market risk, monetary policy stance, and corporate financing: China’s economic recovery in the post-pandemic era," Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 1-37, August.
    9. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Qiu, Han & Su, Dan & Yu, Changhua, 2024. "Bigtech credit, small business, and monetary policy transmission: Theory and evidence," IWH Discussion Papers 18/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    10. Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2024. "Global Financial Cycle, Household Credit, and Macroprudential Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(11), pages 8096-8115, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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