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Temperature-Induced Bias in Energy Performance Certification

Author

Listed:
  • Oleksandr Talavera

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Haonan Tian

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Liyun Zhang

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

We examine whether ambient temperature affects Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) scores assigned by government-accredited assessors. Using over 17 million EPCs from England and Wales (2008–2025) linked with high-frequency weather and pollution data, we find that inspection-day temperature changes reported energy-efficiency scores. The effect is nonlinear and asymmetric: sub-zero days raise scores, with the largest increase below −5C, when scores are 1.36 points higher than on 10–15C days; warmer conditions generate smaller downward adjustments. The pattern is concentrated in assessments relying on less directly verified inputs and in settings where outdoor verification is more costly, pointing to a verification-effort mechanism. Temperature-related score movements also cluster near EPC rating thresholds, where small changes can alter assigned labels and imply £5,220–7,250 property-value shifts. Temporary environmental conditions can therefore enter durable certification records and affect green-label reliability in housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleksandr Talavera & Haonan Tian & Liyun Zhang, 2026. "Temperature-Induced Bias in Energy Performance Certification," Discussion Papers 26-01, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:26-01
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    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • K32 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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