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The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate Change

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  • Gouel, Christophe
  • LaBorde, David

Abstract

Climate change effects on agricultural yields will be uneven over the world. A few countries, mostly in high latitudes, may experience gains, while most will see average yield decrease. This paper aims to quantify the role of market-mediated adjustments in attenuating the effects of climate change by allowing the expression of the new climate-induced pattern of comparative advantages within and between countries. To do this, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium trade model where the representation of land use choice is inspired from modern Ricardian trade models. We use spatially explicit information from the agronomic literature about potential yields before and after climate change for calibration and counterfactual simulations. The results show that the climate-induced yield changes generate large price movements that incentivize adjustments in production and trade. Both production and trade adjustments contribute to reducing welfare losses globally, with production adjustments making the larger contribution.
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  • Gouel, Christophe & LaBorde, David, 2017. "The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate Change," 2017: Globalization Adrift, December 3-5, 2017, Washington, D.C. 266841, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iats16:266841
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.266841
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    2. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Miljkovic, Dragan & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2021. "Agri-food trade and climate change," Economia agro-alimentare / Food Economy, Italian Society of Agri-food Economics/Società Italiana di Economia Agro-Alimentare (SIEA), vol. 23(1), May.
    3. Annalisa Marini & Steve McCorriston, 2019. "Weather, Prices and Spillovers," Discussion Papers 1905, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    4. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Wise, Marshall, 2020. "The critical role of conversion cost and comparative advantage in modeling agricultural land use change," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304204, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Natalia Iwaszczuk & Jacek Wolak & Aleksander Iwaszczuk, 2021. "Turkmenistan’s Gas Sector Development Scenarios Based on Econometric and SWOT Analysis," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Cui, Xiaomeng, 2020. "Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Dumortier, Jerome & Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Elobeid, Amani E., 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Global Agricultural Markets under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304390, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Xin Zhao & Katherine V. Calvin & Marshall A. Wise, 2020. "The Critical Role Of Conversion Cost And Comparative Advantage In Modeling Agricultural Land Use Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-44, February.
    9. Rudik, Ivan & Lyn, Gary & Tan, Weiliang & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2021. "Heterogeneity and Market Adaptation to Climate Change in Dynamic-Spatial Equilibrium," ISU General Staff Papers 202106020700001127, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Farid Farrokhi & Heitor S. Pellegrina, 2020. "Global Trade and Margins of Productivity in Agriculture," NBER Working Papers 27350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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