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The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate Change

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  • Christophe Gouel
  • David Laborde

Abstract

Climate change effects on agricultural yields will be uneven over the world with a few countries, mostly in high latitudes, that may experience gains, while most will see average yield decrease. This paper aims at quantifying the role of international trade in attenuating the effects of climate change by allowing the expression of the new climate-induced pattern of comparative advantages. To do this, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium trade model where the representation of acreage and land use choices is inspired from modern Ricardian trade models but also consistent with theoretical and empirical literature on land use choices. The model is calibrated on spatially explicit information about potential yields before and after climate change coming from the agronomic literature. The results show that the climate-induced yield changes generate large price movements that incentivize adjustments in acreage and trade. The new trade pattern is very different from the current one, showing the important role of trade flows in adapting to climate change. This is confirmed by larger welfare losses from climate change when adjustments in trade flows are constrained versus when they are not.

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  • Christophe Gouel & David Laborde, 2018. "The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 25221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25221
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    1. Xin Zhao & Dominique Y van der Mensbrugghe & Roman M. Keeney & Wallace E. Tyner, 2021. "Improving the Way Land Use Change is Handled in Economic Models," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 15, pages 467-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    3. Federal Reserve Bank Kansas City, 2018. "Agriculture in a Global Economy: 2018 Agricultural Symposium," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Special I, pages 1-96.
    4. Annalisa Marini & Steve McCorriston, 2019. "Weather, Prices and Spillovers," Discussion Papers 1905, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    5. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Wise, Marshall & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Conference papers 333309, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Marcel Adenäuer & Clara Frezal & Thomas Chatzopoulos, 2023. "Mitigating the impact of extreme weather events on agricultural markets through trade," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 198, OECD Publishing.
    7. Heitor Pellegrina & Sebastian Sotelo, 2019. "Migration, Specialization and Trade: Evidence from the Brazilian March to the West," 2019 Meeting Papers 863, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Wise, Marshall, 2020. "The critical role of conversion cost and comparative advantage in modeling agricultural land use change," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304204, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Shon M Ferguson & Johan Gars, 2020. "Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(3), pages 1094-1132.
    10. Paul Brenton & Vicky Chemutai & Mari Pangestu, 2022. "Trade and food security in a climate change‐impacted world," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 580-591, July.
    11. Uris L. C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel & Frances C. Moore, 2019. "Understanding the Spatial Distribution of Welfare Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture and its Drivers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 101(5), pages 1455-1472, October.
    12. Farid Farrokhi & Heitor S. Pellegrina, 2020. "Global Trade and Margins of Productivity in Agriculture," NBER Working Papers 27350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Xin Zhao & Katherine V. Calvin & Marshall A. Wise, 2020. "The Critical Role Of Conversion Cost And Comparative Advantage In Modeling Agricultural Land Use Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-44, February.
    14. Abigail Snyder & Katherine Calvin & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds & Page Kyle & Kanishka Narayan & Alan Di Vittorio & Stephanie Waldhoff & Marshall Wise & Pralit Patel, 2020. "The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-11, August.
    15. Cui, Xiaomeng, 2020. "Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    16. Santiago Guerrero & Ben Henderson & Hugo Valin & Charlotte Janssens & Petr Havlik & Amanda Palazzo, 2022. "The impacts of agricultural trade and support policy reform on climate change adaptation and environmental performance: A model-based analysis," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 180, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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