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Commodity Trade Matters

Author

Listed:
  • Thibault Fally
  • James Sayre

Abstract

Primary commodities are used as inputs into all production processes, yet they account for approximately 16 percent of world trade. Despite their share in trade, we show that the aggregate gains from trade are largely understated if we ignore key features of commodities: low price elasticities of demand (difficulty in finding substitutes), low price elasticities of supply, and high dispersion of natural resources across countries. We develop a general-equilibrium model of consumption, production, and input-output linkages that explicitly accounts for these features. Our simulations confirm that the gains from trade are significantly larger, especially when considering large trade cost changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibault Fally & James Sayre, 2018. "Commodity Trade Matters," NBER Working Papers 24965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24965
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    Cited by:

    1. Bastianin, Andrea & Casoli, Chiara & Galeotti, Marzio, 2023. "The connectedness of Energy Transition Metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Pelzl, Paul & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2025. "The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. Martin, Will & Minot, Nicholas, 2022. "The impacts of price insulation on world wheat markets during the 2022 food price crisis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(04), January.
    5. Becker, Jonathon M., 2021. "General equilibrium impacts on the U.S. economy of a disruption to Chinese cobalt supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Lukas Boer & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Martin Stuermer, 2021. "Energy Transition Metals," IMF Working Papers 2021/243, International Monetary Fund.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2024. "Networks, Barriers, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(2), pages 505-541, March.
    8. Jonathon M. Becker & Jared C. Carbone & Andreas Löschel, 2025. "Induced Innovation and Carbon Leakage," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(9), pages 2357-2401, September.
    9. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka, 2024. "The consequences of non-participation in the Paris Agreement," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    10. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? Estimating the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-698, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Chu, Long & Do, Thang Nam & Le, Thi Ha Lien & Ho, Quoc Anh & Dang, Khoi, 2024. "Carbon border adjustment mechanism, carbon pricing, and within-sector shifts: A partial equilibrium approach to Vietnam's steel sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    12. Heerman, Kari E.R., 2020. "Technology, ecology and agricultural trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    13. Farrokhi, Farid, 2020. "Global sourcing in oil markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Gouel, Christophe & Laborde, David, 2021. "The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    15. Andrea Bastianin & Xiao Li & Luqman Shamsudin, 2025. "Forecasting the Volatility of Energy Transition Metals," Papers 2501.16069, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    16. Dao, Mai & Dizioli, Allan Gloe & Jackson, Chris & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Leigh, Daniel, 2023. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? On the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264095, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Zhu, Yongguang & Xu, Deyi & Ali, Saleem H. & Cheng, Jinhua, 2021. "A hybrid assessment model for mineral resource availability potentials," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2020. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities: Worth Weighting For," Working Papers DT/2020/08, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    20. Farid Farrokhi & Heitor S. Pellegrina, 2020. "Global Trade and Margins of Productivity in Agriculture," NBER Working Papers 27350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Carol Dahl & Ben Gilbert & Ian Lange, 2020. "Mineral scarcity on Earth: are Asteroids the answer," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 29-41, July.
    22. Gouel, Christophe & LaBorde, David, "undated". "The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate Change," 2017: Globalization Adrift, December 3-5, 2017, Washington, D.C. 266841, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    23. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Pol Antràs & Alonso de Gortari, 2020. "On the Geography of Global Value Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1553-1598, July.
    25. Porteous, Obie, 2020. "Trade and agricultural technology adoption: Evidence from Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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