IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/333309.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Xin
  • Calvin, Katherine
  • Wise, Marshall
  • Iyer, Gokul

Abstract

The representations of international trade and global market integration play central roles in long-term global agricultural economic modeling. However, the conventional use of the gravity models (i.e., the Armington approach) of trade may not adequately account for the dynamic process of market integration. In this paper, we generalize a logit-based Armington approach by permitting home preference bias erosion to account for a trend of global market integration. We build a simple agricultural economic equilibrium model and conduct hindcast experiments to examine the historical trend of market integration. The results show a significant integrating trend of the global agricultural market implied by converging Armington preference distributions (i.e., home bias erosion) in 1995 – 2015, with a half-life of 45 years. We demonstrate important implications of allowing the dynamic trend of market integration implied by bias erosion on estimating trade elasticities. By testing the future market integration trend implied by historical home bias integration in GCAM, we show a high sensitivity of long-term agroeconomic projections to future trade and market integration scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Wise, Marshall & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Conference papers 333309, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333309
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333309/files/10576.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan & Robert McDougall, 2016. "An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 181-208, June.
    2. Luciana L. Porfirio & David Newth & John J. Finnigan & Yiyong Cai, 2018. "Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-398, May.
    4. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2017. "A Solution to the Missing Globalization Puzzle by Non-CES Preferences," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 649-676, August.
    5. Marshall Wise & Kate Calvin & Page Kyle & Patrick Luckow & Jae Edmonds, 2014. "Economic And Physical Modeling Of Land Use In Gcam 3.0 And An Application To Agricultural Productivity, Land, And Terrestrial Carbon," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-22.
    6. Jianan Li & Zhiyuan Li & Puyang Sun, 2018. "Does the razor's edge exist? New evidence of the law of one price in China (1997–2012)," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3442-3466, December.
    7. Michiel van Dijk & George Philippidis & Geert Woltjer, 2016. "Catching up with history: A methodology to validate global CGE models," FOODSECURE Technical papers 9, LEI Wageningen UR.
    8. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    9. Gouel, Christophe & Laborde, David, 2021. "The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Pippenger, John & Phillips, Llad, 2008. "Some pitfalls in testing the law of one price in commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 915-925, October.
    11. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1990. "Testing the law of one price when trade takes time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-40, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xinru Miao & Shaopeng Wang & Jiqin Han & Zhaoyi Ren & Teng Ma & Henglang Xie, 2024. "The Regional Heterogeneity of the Impact of Agricultural Market Integration on Regional Economic Development: An Analysis of Pre-COVID-19 Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-33, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Xin Zhao & Dominique Y van der Mensbrugghe & Roman M. Keeney & Wallace E. Tyner, 2021. "Improving the Way Land Use Change is Handled in Economic Models," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 15, pages 467-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Johannes Ziesmer & Ding Jin & Sneha D Thube & Christian Henning, 2023. "A Dynamic Baseline Calibration Procedure for CGE models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1331-1368, April.
    4. Pippenger, John, 2015. "Arbitrage and the Law of One Price: Setting the Record Straight," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt27t4q265, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    5. Abigail Snyder & Katherine Calvin & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds & Page Kyle & Kanishka Narayan & Alan Di Vittorio & Stephanie Waldhoff & Marshall Wise & Pralit Patel, 2020. "The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-11, August.
    6. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Wise, Marshall, 2020. "The critical role of conversion cost and comparative advantage in modeling agricultural land use change," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304204, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Yulin Hou & Yun Wang & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "Gravity channels in trade," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 37-65, January.
    8. Xu, Tao, 2019. "Economic freedom and bilateral direct investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 172-179.
    9. Zhao, Xin & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Tyner, Wally, 2017. "Modeling land physically in CGE models: new insights on intensive and extensive margins," Conference papers 332816, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Pippenger, John, 2022. "The Law Of One Price, Borders And Purchasing Power Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5b17d1dr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    11. Xin Zhao & Katherine V. Calvin & Marshall A. Wise, 2020. "The Critical Role Of Conversion Cost And Comparative Advantage In Modeling Agricultural Land Use Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-44, February.
    12. Zhao, Xin & Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Tyner, Wallace E., 2017. "Modeling land physically in CGE models: new insights on intensive and extensive margins," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258363, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Qu, Yang & Hooper, Tara & Austen, Melanie C. & Papathanasopoulou, Eleni & Huang, Junling & Yan, Xiaoyu, 2023. "Development of a computable general equilibrium model based on integrated macroeconomic framework for ocean multi-use between offshore wind farms and fishing activities in Scotland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    14. Karina Acosta & Hengyu Gu, 2022. "Locked up? The development and internal migration nexus in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 19931, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    15. Federico Perali & Stefania Lovo, 2009. "Counterfactual analysis using a regional dynamic general equilibrium model with historical calibration," Working Papers 58/2009, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    16. Winchester, Niven & Reilly, John M., 2020. "The economic and emissions benefits of engineered wood products in a low-carbon future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2022. "Gravity, counterparties, and foreign investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 132-152.
    18. V. I. Blanutsa, 2022. "Geographic Research of the Platform Economy: Existing and Potential Approaches," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 133-142, June.
    19. Thibault Fally & James Sayre, 2018. "Commodity Trade Matters," 2018 Meeting Papers 172, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Zouheir El-Sahli, 2023. "The Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 185-199, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.