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A Solution to the Missing Globalization Puzzle by Non-CES Preferences

Listed author(s):
  • Hakan Yilmazkuday

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Florida International University)

One channel of welfare-improving globalization is through the increasing integration of trade. Although this is attributed to decreasing effects of distance across countries, the workhorse models of gravity fail to capture it, the so-called the missing globalization or the distance puzzle. This paper shows that this puzzle may be due to the restricting assumption of constant elasticity of substitution (CES) preferences working behind the gravity models. We test the validity of this assumption for different trade intervals and show that it is violated due to the distance elasticity of trade decreasing with the amount of trade. Accordingly, we consider a type of non-CES utility function, namely constant absolute risk version (CARA), and analytically show that the negative relation between trade and distance elasticity of trade is captured by CARA preferences. We estimate the gravity equation implied by CARA preferences, empirically confirm the endogenous relation between trade and distance elasticity of trade, and show that the distance puzzle is solved under CARA preferences. According to the data set used, CARA preferences are also econometrically selected over CES preferences based on their goodness of fit.

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File URL: http://economics.fiu.edu/research/working-papers/2016/1608/1608.pdf
File Function: First version, 2016
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Florida International University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1608.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2016
Handle: RePEc:fiu:wpaper:1608
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Web page: http://economics.fiu.edu

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  1. Gabriel J Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 4, pages 115-148 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  2. Novy, Dennis, 2013. "International trade without CES: Estimating translog gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 271-282.
  3. Elisaveta Archanskaia & Guillaume Daudin, 2012. "Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
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  7. Kristian Behrens & Yasusada Murata, 2012. "Globalization and Individual Gains from Trade (revised version)," Cahiers de recherche 1218, CIRPEE.
  8. Behrens, Kristian & Murata, Yasusada, 2007. "General equilibrium models of monopolistic competition: A new approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 776-787, September.
  9. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2016. "Constant versus variable markups: Implications for the law of one price," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 154-168.
  10. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2012. "Understanding interstate trade patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 158-166.
  11. Russell H. Hillberry & Michael A. Anderson & Edward J. Balistreri & Alan K. Fox, 2005. "Taste Parameters as Model Residuals: Assessing the "Fit" of an Armington Trade Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 973-984, November.
  12. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
  13. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2015. "Pass-through of trade costs to U.S. import prices," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(4), pages 609-633, November.
  14. Demet Yilmazkuday & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2017. "The role of direct flights in trade costs," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 249-270, May.
  15. Kristian Behrens & Giordano Mion & Yasusada Murata & Jens Südekum, 2014. "Trade, Wages, And Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 1305-1348, November.
  16. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2014. "Mismeasurement of Distance Effects: The Role of Internal Location of Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 992-1015, November.
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  23. repec:lmu:muenar:20646 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2015. "The Elusive Pro-Competitive Effects of Trade," NBER Working Papers 21370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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