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Migration and Regional Trade Agreements: A (New) Gravity Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Figueiredo
  • Luiz Renato Lima
  • Gianluca Orefice

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on bilateral international migration. Building on a gravity model for migration, our econometric strategy controls for the multilateral resistance to migration and solves the zero migration flows problem by using a censored quantile regression approach. Further, the endogeneity problem of RTAs in migration settlement is addressed by using instrumental variable censored quantile regression. Our results suggest that the presence of a RTA stimulates the migration stocks among member countries. The pro‐migration effect of RTAs is magnified if the agreement includes also provisions easing bureaucratic procedures for visa and asylum among member countries. Finally, we find an asymmetric effect of RTAs across the quantiles of the distribution of migration settlements.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Figueiredo & Luiz Renato Lima & Gianluca Orefice, 2016. "Migration and Regional Trade Agreements: A (New) Gravity Estimation," Post-Print hal-02534389, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02534389
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12209
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    Cited by:

    1. Beverelli, Cosimo & Orefice, Gianluca, 2019. "Migration deflection: The role of Preferential Trade Agreements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Maria Santana-Gallego & Jordi Paniagua, 2022. "Tourism and migration: Identifying the channels with gravity models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(2), pages 394-417, March.
    3. Figueiredo, Erik & Lima, Luiz Renato & Loures, Alexandre & Oliveira, Celina, 2014. "Uma Análise para o Efeito-Fronteira no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(4), October.
    4. Erik Figueiredo & Luiz Renato Lima, 2020. "Do economic integration agreements affect trade predictability? A group effect analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 637-664, May.
    5. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Marta Suarez-Varela, 2025. "Forced migration and food crises," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-32, December.
    6. Lucas Guichard & Joël Machado, 2025. "The externalities of immigration policies on migration flows: the case of an asylum policy," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 59-74.
    7. Cosimo Beverelli, 2022. "Pull factors for migration: The impact of migrant integration policies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 171-191, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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