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Supply Response under Risk: Implications for Counter-Cyclical Payments' Production Impact

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  • William Lin
  • Robert Dismukes

Abstract

This study investigates the role of risk in farmers' acreage decisions for major field crops in the North Central region by revisiting an earlier study by Chavas and Holt. The empirical model is forward-looking and reflects better variable measurement. We test the effects of wealth and revenue risk on supply response. Estimated results are also used to examine the production impact of counter-cyclical payments (CCPs). We find that the effects of risk on supply response are not strong. An increase in initial wealth would lead to greater crop acreage, consistent with decreasing absolute risk aversion. The effect of CCPs on production appears to be negligible. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • William Lin & Robert Dismukes, 2007. "Supply Response under Risk: Implications for Counter-Cyclical Payments' Production Impact," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 64-86.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:29:y:2007:i:1:p:64-86
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9353.2006.00330.x
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    1. Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1988. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 88-wp33, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    2. Barry K. Goodwin & Ashok K. Mishra, 2005. "Another Look at Decoupling: Additional Evidence on the Production Effects of Direct Payments," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1200-1210.
    3. William Lin, 1977. "Measuring Aggregate Supply Response under Instability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(5), pages 903-907.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boussios, David & Barkley, Andrew, 2014. "Producer Expectations and the Extensive Margin in Grain Supply Response," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 335-356, December.
    2. Liang, Yan & Miller, J. Corey & Harri, Ardian & Coble, Keith H., 2011. "Crop Supply Response under Risk: Impacts of Emerging Issues on Southeastern U.S. Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 181-194, May.
    3. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    4. Donato, Romano & Carraro, Alessandro, 2015. "Modelling Acreage, Production and Yield Supply Response to Domestic Price Volatility," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207278, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    5. David Ubilava, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinearities in the U.S. Soybean‐to‐Corn Price Ratio: A Smooth Transition Autoregression Approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 29-41, January.
    6. Burdine, Kenneth H. & Maynard, Leigh J., 2012. "Risk Reduction of LGM-Dairy and its Potential Impact on Production," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124180, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Yu, Jisang & Smith, Aaron & Sumner, Daniel A., 2016. "The Effects of the Premium Subsidies in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program on Crop Acreage," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236022, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Smith, Rachel K. & Duffy, Patricia A. & Novak, James L. & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2009. "Supply Response of Crops in the Southeast," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46756, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Pope, Rulon D. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Just, Richard E., 2011. "Agricultural arbitrage and risk preferences," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 35-43, May.
    10. Alfons Weersink & Juan H. Cabas & Edward Olale, 2010. "Acreage Response to Weather, Yield, and Price," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(1), pages 57-72, March.
    11. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Saddiq, Muhammad & Fayaz, Muhammad & Hussain, Zahid & Shahab, Muhammad & Ullah, Irfan, 3. "Acreage Response Of Sugarcane To Price And Non Price Factors In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 2(3).
    13. Fabienne Femenia & Alexandre Gohin & Alain Carpentier, 2010. "The Decoupling of Farm Programs: Revisiting the Wealth Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 836-848.
    14. Bakhshi, Samira & Kerr, William A., 2009. "Is There Supply Distortion In The Green Box? An Acreage Response Approach," Working Papers 51093, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    15. Catherine Hausman, 2012. "Biofuels and Land Use Change: Sugarcane and Soybean Acreage Response in Brazil," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 163-187, February.
    16. Lee, Young-Jae & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2013. "The Role Of Uncertainty In The Agricultural Output Market In Acreage Allocation Decisions," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142130, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    17. Lin, William W. & Lucier, Gary, 2008. "Effects of Marketing Loans on U.S. Dry Peas and Lentils: Supply Response and World Trade," Economic Research Report 56454, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    18. Flanders, Archie, 2014. "Stocks-to-Use Response for Acreage Allocation of Arkansas Field Crops," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
    19. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Agricultural supply response to international food prices and price volatility: a crosscountry panel analysis," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149630, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Mosheim, Roberto & Blaney, Don & Burdine, Kenneth H. & Maynard, Leigh J., 2014. "Livestock Gross Margin-Dairy Insurance: An Assessment of Risk Management and Potential Supply Impacts," Economic Research Report 164606, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    21. Burdine, Kenneth H. & Kusunose, Yoko & Maynard, Leigh J. & Blayney, Donald P. & Mosheim, Roberto, 2014. "Livestock Gross Margin–Dairy: An Assessment of Its Effectiveness as a Risk Management Tool and Its Potential to Induce Supply Expansion," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(02), May.
    22. Boussios, David & Barkley, Andrew P., 2012. "Kansas Grain Supply Response to Economic and Biophysical Factors, 1977-2007," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124385, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    23. Mekbib G. Haile & Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim Braun, 2014. "Inter- and intra-seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 693-710, November.
    24. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "How does food supply respond to high and volatile international food prices? An empirical evaluation of inter- and intra- seasonal global crop acreage response," 2013 AAAE Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161472, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).

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