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Measuring Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Equilibrium Perspective on Supply-Side Approaches
[Mesurer les impacts du changement climatique sur l'agriculture : Une perspective d'équilibre sur les approches axées sur l'offre]

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe C. Gouel

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Climate change impacts on agriculture are mostly estimated by supply-side reduced-form regressions, under the implicit assumption of constant crop prices. To test whether this assumption is innocuous, I use a quantitative trade model of global agricultural markets to emulate the findings of a supply-side approach and to calculate welfare changes accounting for price changes. The results show that both welfare measures are weakly correlated and can be of opposite signs, and that the supply-side approach tends to underestimate the cost of climate change because of the imperfect substitutability of crops in demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe C. Gouel, 2025. "Measuring Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Equilibrium Perspective on Supply-Side Approaches [Mesurer les impacts du changement climatique sur l'agriculture : Une perspective d'équilibre sur les approches axées sur l'offre]," Post-Print hal-04829202, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04829202
    DOI: 10.1086/730591
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04829202v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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